Tuesday, February 13, 2018
You would think one would cease to be amazed by how the Tr*mp White House can turn what should have been an easy executive decision into a fiasco. Even if Kelly and company decided to take their chances on a wife-beater for the sake of employing somebody less incompetent than the rest of the crew, they should have had plenty of time to cook up a coherent response for when the skeletons rattled the closet. Oh!.. and has anyone asked Hope Hicks if she's still dating the creep?
Meanwhile, in Europe...
Southern Europe may turn out to be the big winner from the German election that put members of the far-right AfD party into the Bundestag. It forced Angel Merkel to enter another coalition with the Social Democrats, the SPD — but this time the SPD will control the finance ministry. and the austerity obsessed Wolfgang Schaeuble will be gone. Southern Europe still needs stimulus; and that now may be possible.
And in Israel...
One wonders if part of the motivation for recent Israeli bombing in northern Syria was to inspire patriotic support for Bibi Netanyahu, currently facing corruption charges. Also, one wonders if US recognition of Jerusalem was a Trump/Kushner political gift to Bibi, intended for the same purpose. Of course, such speculation may be wrong, even though it feels so right.
Thursday, February 8, 2018
Many are saying that the "problem" that caused the recent slip in stock prices is a tight labor market, leading to rising wages: corporations actually might have to spend more on labor, leaving less for dividends and executive bonuses. Inflation, of course, will eat up wage increases, just as it's been doing since the 1970s. Real wages will stay flat.
Have no fear, plutocrats! You'll have plenty of money from the new tax code to resume your stock buybacks and top-level compensation increases. There will be inflation and higher interest costs, though, thanks to that same tax legislation. Adding an economic stimulus to an economy already experiencing steady growth and low unemployment guarantees more inflation. On the bright side, you'll pay your higher labor costs with cheaper dollars.
The Fed has plenty of room to raise interest rates, of course, and plenty of motivation to do so. Rates have to be increased significantly, so they can be dropped again as stimulus when the next recession arrives. Other factors, including the irrelevance of the labor movement and the absence of any real competition among our corporate giants, make a wage-price spiral unlikely.
So what caused the slip in stock prices? Sorry, but it wasn't Trump — no more than it was Tr*mp who created the bull market. It's just that those computer algorithms that control a large majority of today's stock trades still are inclined to overreact to factors that human beings just don't notice. Program trading brought us the bull market, and it's the most likely suspect when things get weird.
You can stop looking for the man behind the curtain, Dorothy — he's gone.
Saturday, February 3, 2018
Getting the FISA court to issue a warrant is easier than getting the proverbial grand jury to indict the proverbial ham sandwich — there's nobody there to oppose the warrant, it is assumed that the warrant is, well, warranted, and the judges want to go to lunch. If there isn't a big rubber stamp to mark "APPROVED" on every application, it's just another example of gross government inefficiency.
Carter Page, notoriously sleazy, might have justified a warrant by reputation alone. Personally, I still don't see why the Russians would have needed Republican help to interfere in our election, although compromising some idiots in the Tr*mp campaign probably was just too easy a proposition to pass up. The cover-up, as usual, is likely to be worse than the crime.