Saturday, October 31, 2009

Not My Fault!

Okay, at the beginning of the week I proclaimed that the market improvement we've seen recently looked like just another bubble to me — then, at the end of the week, all the indices take big hits.

Honest, though, I didn't do it. Blame somebody whose blog actually has readers. (I do this for the sake of posterity or, more to the point, so I can check on how right or wrong I've been over the years.)

Okay, again — and for the sake of "posterity" — I still think the markets are overpriced by 15 to 20 percent. When the financials finally are forced to write down their losses, I can't see how the markets won't wind up taking another big hit. If Congress and the Administration ever agree on a financial regulatory bill with some real teeth, that will impact the numbers as well. With some sensible reserve requirements, the big banks won't be able to play quite so fast nor so loose.

Continuing in my usual pessimistic vein, I'll also predict that the recent rise in GDP will fall off again — that the "recession is over" news was the product of a little stimulus package and a big statistical blip. I just hope the upcoming bad news is not sufficient to inspire voters to give the Republicans another try in 2010 — the goddamned Democrats are bad enough.

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