Monday, July 6, 2015

The NO Vote

The Greeks have soundly defeated eurozone efforts to depose their allegedly "leftist" government by a margin of 61 to 39 percent.  Even though they had no way of knowing the impact of their decision on Greece's future, they clearly understood that banker-imposed austerity policies have been a complete failure, and rejected them.  The next move must come from the "troika," and what that move will be remains to be seen.

Nobody — not even Wolfgang Schäuble — really wants to see Grexit, but serious obstacles stand in the way of the debt relief Greece needs.  Yes, the IMF admits that Greece will be unable to pay its debts, but the ECB and other lenders will resist: after all, one doesn't want to set a bad example for other southern European nations.  If I had to guess which European leader is most upset by the "no" vote, my nominee would be Spain's Mariano Rajoy, whose government already is under pressure from Podemos, the Spanish political movement that bears a close resemblance to Syriza.  Rajoy just might be serving his last term, and a Podemos majority in the Spanish parliament certainly would be disruptive across Europe.

In Greece, things are likely to get worse before they get better, but glimmers of light are just barely perceptible at the end of the debt tunnel — which would not be the case if the shameless European propaganda campaign had succeeded in effecting a "yes" victory.  More austerity can only feed into an endless downward spiral.  Even Grexit offers more hope.

No comments: