Sunday, August 14, 2016
The US bull market has lasted long enough to make investors nervous, making certain economists nervous. It seems they're just not supposed to last so long. Just the same, not only is there no sign of abatement, the chief threat to its persistence (Tr*mp) is fading fast. I don't know why everybody is so amazed. To me, the reasons for the steadily climbing indices are plain to see.
• Some people have Too Damned Much money, and they have
to put it somewhere.
• Bonds are paying bupkis.
• Some people have Too Damned Much money, leaving too
little for the people who actually buy things, so there's no
reason to invest in productive capacity.
So what gets done with the T.D.M. money? Mergers. Stock buybacks. Upward market pressure. And what eventually will lead to some bearishness? Higher interest rates would help, but the Fed is not about to change monetary policy in the absence of expansionary fiscal policy.
Both presidential candidates are promising major investments in infrastructure, but the national debt scolds are sure to dig in their heels against anything even close to sufficient. Wait and see.