Sunday, January 28, 2018
Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing O'Malley get the nomination in 2020, if he decided to try again — but he won't. Neither will Oprah, who is one of the smarter celebrities out there.
Can the Democrats blow it again with the wrong candidate? Here's a hint: they ran Adlai Stevenson against Eisenhower a second time after he lost spectacularly the first time. Even against Tr*mp, the most unpopular president in any living person's memory, Democrats could go wrong.
The Tr*mp presidency has liberated intrinsic American racism and sexism. Despite backlash from #blacklivesmatter and #metoo, the infection is deep, virulent, and not nearly so embarrassing to the infected as it was a decade ago. To win in 2020, Democrats just might have to put yet another white male at the top of their ticket. Have no doubt that the Democratic establishment is struggling with the problem of satisfying its black and progressive female voters while bringing along enough of Middle America to gain an electoral victory.
Obama won the presidency because he never seemed black enough to threaten white America. Corey Booker has those skills and much of the same charisma, but party leadership must be wondering whether Obama used up that particular kind of appeal. Kamala Harris could do well with Democrats on the left, but her chief appeal to the party leadership might be as a black female running mate to a "dependable" white male.
Elizabeth Warren's focused sincerity, intellect, and genuine populism might make her the strongest female contender, but too many men (like Tr*mp) find her threatening. Kirsten Gillibrand is too strongly identified with feminism for those same men — and there are lots of them — but would be another strong contender for the number-two slot.
So what about the white males? The geezers in contention are Bernie Sanders, who sounds ready for another run, and Joe Biden, who wishes he hadn't dropped out last time. Are millennials ready for more gerontocracy? Neither Sanders nor Biden is much older than Tr*mp, and Biden would have a strong shot at the presidency even if the Republicans dump Tr*mp for a less embarrassing candidate. The most attractive candidate among the younger white men might be Sherrod Brown: progressive, handsome, and from Ohio.
With any luck, Andrew Cuomo will be too wrapped up in ethics investigations to have a serious chance at the nomination. I've sworn off making predictions, but I see a very strong possibility that frightened Democrats will dust off Biden and let him try again.