Tr*mp to Kurds: F*ck you

So, the Russians, the Iranians, and the Turks sat down in a room to "resolve" the civil war in Syria.  Needless to say, the chief objective of the Russians and the Iranians is to keep Bashir al-Assad in power.  Turkey, a purported NATO "ally," is anxious to cooperate with Iran to achieve its own most cherished goal: suppression of the Kurds.

The Kurds have been America's only dependable ally in both Syria and Iraq, and were instrumental in reclaiming territory from the Islamic State.  They are the only force now standing in the way of Assad exercising complete control over Syria.  According to the Washington Post, when Turkish strongman Recip Tayyip Erdogan asked Tr*mp to stop providing arms to the Syrian Kurds, Tr*mp's response was, "Sure, buddy!  Anything for a pal!"

Tr*mp, of course, admires Erdogan's style of leadership; but America's stubborn loyalty to an undeniably autocratic Erdogan seems to have just one real objective: maintaining the US presence at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey.  To do that, both the Administration and military leaders seem willing to empower both Iran and Russia.  Iranian client Hezbollah appears to have solidified control over Lebanon, Iranian ties to the al-Abadi regime in Iraq are stronger than ever, and we can assume Russia's military occupation of Syria will expand: without US support, Kurdish control of northern Syria is doomed.

Now that Erdogan has destroyed the secular legacy of Ataturk, the Kurds are the only ones in the region willing to keep government separate from the practice of Islam; and even though Turkey is Sunni and Iran is Shi'a, Erdogan and Rouhani see no impediment to uniting against the Kurdish "threat."  Haider al-Abadi will happily join the club, anxious to gain control of Kurdish areas of northern Iraq.  America's fourteen-year investment of lives and money in Iraq will have been entirely wasted.

The Kurds, after a century of oppression, deserve to have an independent homeland; and it is in the best interests of the US that they succeed in their quest.  Deserting them now only means more regional power for Russia and Iran, and diminished US influence in the Middle East.

Briefs

Graham-Cassidy
Why do some governors favor block grants even though their states will lose billions?  Given enough "flexibility," it lets them divert federal funds to influence peddling, pork barrel spending, and just plain theft.  The further the funds pass down the ladders from state to regional to local government, the greater the opportunities for corruption and abuse.

Tauntology
In the battle of the schoolyard bullies, "Rocket Man" pulled ahead when he called Our President "the mentally deranged US dotard."  To date, neither has referenced the other's mother.  Watch Twitter for further developments.

Kurdistan
When would be "the proper time" for the Iraqi Kurds to hold a referendum that will start them on the path toward statehood?  While the US might prefer to delay Iraqi, Turkish, and Iranian outrage, the Kurds represent the best chance for a secular state in the Middle East; ideologically, their strongest commitment is to capitalism.

What Happened?
I've heard enough interviews with Hillary so that I feel no need to read the book.  Could things have been done differently?  Maybe.  Would it have made a difference?  Probably not.

Puerto Rico
"Recovery" from Marilyn most likely will consist of privatizing anything that might turn a profit for off-island investors — essentially a vast, neoliberal social experiment.  I suggest that all boricuas left on the island move to Alabama, register to vote, and take over the state, thereby finally achieving the full rights of US citizens.

The Great Syrian Fuck-up

How fortunate are the Republican legislators, presidential candidates, and pundits who can sit back comfortably and rattle their sabers while the Obama administration muddles around hopelessly in Syria and Iraq!  A grand fuck-up it is, and so it shall be, barring, say, Divine Intervention, or something equally unlikely.

Remember those "moderate" rebels we were going to train, and who were going to beat back the assorted Islamists who have nothing in common save hating our guts?  According to today's Times, there are exactly 54 of them, and their leader and his lieutenant just were kidnapped by Al Nusra.  Then, in order to get Erdogan to let us use Turkish airfields to bomb what I shall henceforth call "the Islamist State" (aka all that other stuff), the Obamites have to sort of ignore the fact that the Turks are not especially attacking IS targets, but reserving their firepower for the Kurds, previously the most effective force against IS.

One reason we have been so unsuccessful in recruiting anti-IS fighters is that we refuse to go after the Assad regime, presumably because Assad is fighting IS.  Well, Mr. President, the PKK aligned militias under bombardment by Turkey are fighting IS too, Turkey wants Assad overthrown, Assad has committed war crimes, and nobody is supporting him but Iran.  Oh, wait!  I forgot that the Iranians are not quite so bad as they used to be.

Personally, I believe that the Kurds, PKK affiliated or not, are the only ones in the region worthy of support, and I sincerely hope they manage to carve out an independent Kurdistan from the shit gumbo the USofA is haplessly wading through in the Middle East.  I understand that Turkey has to remain in NATO for various geopolitical reasons, but maybe it's time for another secularist military coup over there.  Where's the goddamned CIA when you need it?

Turkish Elections

Turks will be going to the polls this weekend, in an election that is likely to determine the future of their country, and have major consequences for US foreign relations.  Recip Tayip Erdogan, who has become increasingly Putinesque over the past decade, is hoping to win a 60% majority in Parliament, enabling him to change the Turkish constitution and solidify his power.

As a NATO member, Turkey is a vital participant in US Middle East operations.  The US looks to Turkey as a partner in its struggle against ISIS (aka etc. etc.), but that partnership has not been what the US might have expected before Ergogan's Islamist party came to power.  It well may be that Erdogan feels more comfortable with ISIS across the border than the Kurds, and his participation in the war against ISIS has been sorely lacking.

As Iraq fragments into Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish sectors, and the likelihood that the Kurds finally will achieve the Kurdish homeland they have aspired to for at least the past century, Erdogan feels increasingly threatened by the PKK and other Kurdish nationalists in Turkey.  Personally, I believe that the Kurds deserve a homeland, including Kurdish Iraq, Kurdish Syria and, ideally, Kurdish Turkey as well.  It is understandable that the Turks are unwilling to see a significant chunk of their country pulled away to become part of greater Kurdistan, but tacit support for ISIS by the Erdogan government can only help to further exacerbate conflict in the Middle East.

It also is in the best interest of the US for the secularists who led Turkey since the days of Ataturk maintain essential political influence.  If the current election gives Erdogan the ability to aggrandize his increasingly autocratic power, we all are losers.

..........
Later:
Great news!  Not only did Erdogan not make his 60%, he lost his parliamentary majority!  Better yet, the biggest gains were by the pro-Kurdish HDP (People's Democratic Party), which made significant outreach to secularists, gays, women, and others not comfortable with Islamism.  Hooray!

Islamic State? Jewish State?

Nobody in the USofA is especially happy with the Islamic State (formerly ISIS or ISIL).  Well, they're pretty nasty boys, especially when they encounter Christians, Shi'a, Abadis, and even Sunni Muslims who are not, at the very least, Salafist.  Somebody should be stopping them, but that asshole Nuri Kamal al Maliki, obviously, is out of his depth.

Personally, I think Kurdistan is the best bet for the USofA in that part of the world, even if it makes Erdogan fudge his underpants.  If nothing else, they're capitalists, and, at the moment, the pesh murga needs help.  It's still using ancient Soviet armament against the very latest US weapons looted from fleeing Iraqi alleged "troops."  Yes, I'm pro-Kurdistan.  No, I'm not a Kurd.

Personally, I think the very idea of an "Islamic State" is disgusting, but  I have no higher opinion of a "Jewish State."  Yes, I believe in the Holocaust, and I believe that Jews need a place they can be sure they won't be persecuted, but I don't believe a nation state should be founded around any religion.  States should be secular and diverse, so ideologues of whatever stripe find it more difficult to grab hold.  Think of those assholes who claim the USofA is a Christian country.  Kind of makes me sick.

So, no, I don't think the "two-state solution" ever is likely to work — and I'm sure Bibi, sensibly, shares my opinion on that matter, no matter how earnestly John Kerry babbles on.  That leaves Israel with two choices, pretty much Sophie-style: either continue the imperial occupation ad infinitum, with increasing international approbation; or fully integrate the Palestinians into Israeli society by becoming a truly secular state.

Me, I favor the One State Solution.  "But wait!" many will say, "The Palestinians will outnumber the Jews, take over Parliament, and where will the Jews be then?!"

Fear not, panicky ones.  The ultra-orthodox breed faster than the proverbial bunnies, and the real power — which is to say, the big money — will still be controlled by Jewish plutocrats.  We all know who's really in charge of our secular "democracies," and it sure ain't us.

The Mess in Iraq

Saddam Hussein was dreadful, but Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has been a catastrophe.  His virtual elimination of Sunni Muslims from the Iraqi government, beginning with his targeting the now exiled Sunni vice president Tariq al-Hashemi immediately following the withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2011, left Sunni Iraqis with no political power and no way to address grievances.  Add to that his increasing authoritarianism, and civil war looked inevitable.  ISIS is merely the precipitating factor.

Those currently insisting that Obama "should have" left some American troops in Iraq conveniently forget that Maliki refused to sign the status of forces agreement that would have permitted that.  It was clear at the time that Maliki wanted the United States out of Iraq, so he could more easily pursue his sectarian goals.

Now Maliki wants Obama to send air power to help him fight off the ISIS rebels, but without dependable American spotters on the ground, air strikes are more likely to kill hapless civilians than rebel fighters.  Old Baathists are joining up with the ISIS forces,  Shi'a militias are forming, and QUDS guardsmen from Iran already may be in Baghdad.  Quite frankly, any American involvement at this point seems absurd.

I'm waiting for the Kurds to spread out from their autonomous region, perhaps even into Syria, and declare an independent Kurdistan.  Their pesh murga is the best fighting force in the region, and the ongoing chaos in Iraq may be their best chance to have the homeland that has been their goal for many years.