Rubio/Cruz

According to today's Times, Ted Cruz believes the Republican nomination will come down to a showdown between himself and Marco Rubio. He may be right, although I suspect John Kasich also might be in the mix. It's becoming increasingly obvious, even to the Republican base, that Ben Carson is a lovely gentleman, a talented neurosurgeon, and a complete idiot; and that Trump is, well, Trump.

There also is talk about Rubio or Cruz attracting some of the "Hispanic" vote. That won't happen. Back in 1969, Alan Arkin starred in "Popi," a charming film about a Puerto Rican single father who tries to pass off his young sons as Cuban refugees to get them access to the special advantages Cubans received from the US government. Well, screenwriters Tina and Lester Pine certainly got that one right, as non-Cuban Latinos are well aware.  There is not a hell of a lot of sympathy for Uncle Sam's favorites out there in Latino America.

If it really does come down to Cruz vs. Rubio, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Right now, Cruz has a lot more money, especially from superPACs; but if Jeb! continues to stumble, a lot of his support may go to Rubio.  I also continue to believe that the "guapo factor" (keeping it Latino) could make all the difference.  Rubio is so cute you want to pinch his cheeks; Cruz looks like he'd like to bite off your nose.  Also, as a commentator whose name I can't remember said with regard to Cruz last week, "Everybody hates him."

Catch-up

Russia in Syria
The main question: why?  Is Putin acting for internal Russian consumption, continuing his "strong man" routine?  Is he concerned about losing Russia's naval base?  It's not because he likes Assad — nobody likes Assad.  Maybe he's just decided that since Syria probably is the most fucked-up arena in the world, Russia, hoping to re-establish itself as a "world power," just has to be there.

Initially, it seemed inevitable that Russia only could make the megamess worse, but there is a possibility that Russia might make things better, by sharing some of the responsibility for pumping out the cesspool.  After all, Syria can't get much worse.

Hillary and Benghazi
Yawn.

Migrants
The United States has no valid excuse for admitting so few war refugees, leaving others to shoulder the load.  The idea that we need two years per applicant to filter out potential "terrorists" is nothing but an excuse.  The real motive for the unconscionable rigmarole is xenophobia and racism.

Paul Ryan
Of course.  All the "I don't wanna" was bullshit from word one.  He always had the essential quality: allegiance to the economic policy of soaking the poor to further enrich the rich and pretending it creates "growth."  Despite it's other bizarre obsessions, the Freedom Caucus agrees.

The Primaries
I'm still giving Bernie money, even though it's dead certain now that Hillary will be the Democratic candidate, and that Bernie's pulled her about as far to the left as she's ready to go.

In the meanwhile, the Republican field continues to be a total freak show: Ben Carson!?  He makes Trump seem reasonable (and intelligent) by comparison.  Bush, despite all his money, appears to be dead in the water.  Ted Cruz, who is straight-out evil, is moving up — but he's far too ugly to be elected president.  Rubio, the quintessential opportunist but pretty as a picture, may end up the candidate — and, sadly, he might even win.

Candidates

Is Hillary a real person?  Sure.  Everybody's a real person.  Is she the kind of person I'd want to support for President of the USofA?  Not really, but if she ever comes out with some concrete policy positions, I just might feel better or worse about her.  Right now, I'm with Bill DeBlasio, waiting to see if she might (ahem) "clarify" what she's thinking.  Her history would have me believe she's more hawkish than I can accept, and a bit more in the pocket of Wall Street than I'd like.  Needless to say, whatever positions she takes for the campaign will not bind her to any particular positions she takes as president, but that's true of anybody in politics.

While it would be nice if Ted Cruz managed to win the Republican nomination since that would more or less guarantee a Democratic victory next year, I'd much prefer somebody who might push Hillary further left.  Given the yahoos who form the Republican base, Rand Paul doesn't seem to have much of a chance, but given his foreign policy positions, I might even consider voting for him over Hillary (or the third-party candidate I usually wind up supporting here in dependably Democratic New York.)  Tell me though: what is libertarian about opposing abortion and same-sex marriage?  And if, by some miracle, he ended up our next president, would he follow through?  Politics as usual.

If the Republican base had any brains, it would nominate Marco Rubio.  He's good looking, articulate, and smart.  Granted, I don't much care for his positions on, well, anything, but if the GOP is looking for a winner, I think he'd be a better bet than Jeb Bush.

Short Stuff

Ted Cruz?

I know I said I'd give up predictions, but I will comfortably predict that Ted Cruz will never be the our President.  There are a great many profoundly stupid Americans, but not enough so profoundly stupid as to elect Ted Cruz.  Also, he'd have to lose that insufferably smug expression permanently camped out on his face, and he's just too insufferably smug to look otherwise, even with expert coaching.

Hooray for Utah!

Utah has decided that in the absence of appropriate drugs to carry out capital punishment, it will use firing squads instead.  Well, why the hell not?  If we're willing to shoot members of wedding parties in the Mideast and unarmed black men in the Midwest, why not shoot convicted murderers?  It's fast, cheap, and (assuming the squad can shoot straight) almost as humane as the guillotine.

Lee Kuan Yew

I just watched a Charlie Rose interview with Lee Kuan Yew from some years back, and I was very impressed — by both of them.  Rose asked very tough, direct questions with complete civility, and Lee answered in kind.  Find the show online for an eloquent, entertaining, and totally unselfconscious defense of authoritarianism.

Clinton v. Christie? Oh, crap!

It's more than two years until the Iowa conventions, but the pundits, of course, have to say something.  Chuck Schumer, the senator from Wall Street, also has weighed in, along with a bunch of Hollywood assholes on  behalf of Hillary.  Christie is not yet endorsed by any big shot Republican PACs, which demonstrates that big shot Republican PACs are not quite so dumb as Hollywood assholes, but the pundits don't much care.

We've already had another Clinton, a slightly darker complected "first Black president" by the name of Barack Obama.  We certainly don't need another.  This time around, we need a liberal.

Christie, on the other hand, is just another opportunist with a gigantic ego and a tendency to dissemble.  I would like it, of course, if the Red States advanced Ted Cruz, but only if the Democrats had somebody who was a real Democrat to oppose him.

Yes, I dream of Elizabeth Warren, but that probably won't happen this time around.  Too bad.  Warren v. Cruz would offer voters a real choice — kind of like DeBlasio v. Lhota.  Okay, I apologize.  Lhota is not nearly so bad as Cruz.  If he ran against Hillary, I just might vote for him.

Why they do it

Okay, the government is somewhat defunded, and it probably doesn't make that big a difference except to the 800,000 or so who won't be paid for a while.  The rest of us can live without the Lincoln Memorial for however long it takes — which is to say, no later than October 17, when the debt ceiling comes down on us.

So, we look at those involved in the current "crisis," seeking their motivation.  Sometimes it's obvious.  Some. like Michelle Bachman, Louis Gohmert, and Steve King, are just idiots.  John Boehner is afraid of losing his beloved Speakership, even though he knows better.  Ted Cruz is a self-promoting little piece of crap.  Others are from "safe" (gerrymandered) Republican districts where they just hate Obama (and all the other uppity niggers as well.)

Then, there are the funders.  Some say the Koch brothers are motivated by having read Ayn Rand back when they were in high school — but, clearly, it's just greed.  They're super-rich, and certainly don't want to pay their fair share of taxes.  They're oil men, and have little tolerance for environmental regulation.  They have extraordinary senses of entitlement.

It's possible that the idiots, the self-promoters, and the greedy will push Boehner into pushing the USofA into default.  I sincerely hope he is willing to throw himself on his sword, and save us by calling for an up-down vote when the time comes.

Short subjects

Cruz

Don't worry about Ted Cruz ever becoming your president.  Just look at him.  He was the kind of kid who got jammed into his locker over and over, and was voted "biggest brown-noser" in his high school yearbook.  Yesterday and today, he was brown-nosing the Tea Party idiots with his idiotically long speech that was not a "Mr. Smith" filibuster.

Personally, I'm not really sure the ACA will work.  The probable premiums released by the exec today seem kind of high to me.  Really, we need single payer — and Obama, as we've observed, is not on board.

Dilma

How happy I am with Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff!  She basically ripped Our President a new asshole.

I recently finished Mark Leibovich's "This Town," a book that helps you understand how it doesn't much matter who allegedly is "in control," but how the "Club" remains in control no matter what you think.

I guess the NSA will have to find ways to invade our privacy without leaving tracks.  Fuck them all.  Fuck the NSA, fuck Obama, and viva Dilma!

Iran

As you know, I couldn't care less whether or not Iran gets the bomb.  Being of a certain age, I tend to believe in MAD (mutually assured destruction).  If the Iranians are willing to limit their nuclear enrichment programs to ease the US led sanctions that are destroying their economy and their currency, that's fine too, of course.

US officials like to say that "humanitarian" goods like medicines are not blocked, but that's actually not true.  Since Iran has little or no access to foreign currencies now, it is unable to buy such goods abroad.