I thought Obama wouldn't totally disavow Jeremiah Wright, but that was before I saw the Wrong Reverend's amazing performance at the National Press Club -- that is, before I realized that Wright is a total lunatic. Does he really believe the U.S. government created HIV as a plague on minorities? Hard to say for sure, but I think Obama was genuinely surprised when he saw the clips. If he'd known just how far over the edge Wright would go when bathed in the lights of the national news media, I'm sure he would have put a lot more distance between himself and his old political ally much earlier.
In truth, I was kind of amused that Wright accused Obama of political posturing in his campaign, since I'm convinced that it was political cupidity that drew Obama to Wright's church in the first place. Perhaps it's my personal prejudice, but I always find it hard to suspend disbelief when I hear a smart politician talking about his "spiritual needs." As we all know, church attendance is required for political success in this country, and so is facile hypocrisy.
By the way, just because I think Wright is nuts doesn't mean I think he's entirely wrong. A good part of black America might indeed be targets of genocide, albeit not by HIV. America's penchant for keeping black children undereducated and well supplied with drugs and handguns comes to mind -- something you might call genocide by neglect.
Will Obama emerge from the far side of the Wright debacle unscathed? Probably not, but I think he'll still be viable as a candidate. Time will tell.