What's with Hillary?

I imagine many of us are looking forward to the Democratic debate next Tuesday, but I suspect Hillary Clinton may be less enthusiastic than some others.  Just the same, she certainly seems to be getting ready.  First, she came out in opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline; then she expressed strong reservations about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, leaving herself just the tiniest bit of space to change her opinion when the full text is published.

Clearly, she'd like to enjoy the sort of approbation Bernie Sanders has been receiving from the enthusiastic crowds at his rallies, but I wonder if there's more to it than that.  I wonder if she's finally working at putting some sunlight between herself and her longtime consort and cohort, Bill; and, if so, whether it's reflective of real differences of opinion or just the usual political cupidity.

Back in 2008, I preferred Clinton to Obama, in large part because I thought he was more like Bill than she was, but also because I instinctively distrust glowing, amorphous promises like "hope and change."  True, my own political leanings are very nearly an exact match for Bernie's, but I still can't help hoping that a real liberal might burst forth from Hillary's uncharismatic husk.

Wrapping up March

It's been a pretty depressing month.  That mudslide out in Oso, Washington, is heartbreaking, and every developer who built a house in that known danger area should be financially wiped out.  It won't happen, of course.

Then, there was the Malaysian Airlines flight.  I can't pretend to have any clue as to what happened, albeit I suspect depressurization had some role — but, then, what do I know?  In both Washington and Peking, there are hundreds of people suffering, wondering what became of their loved ones.

As usual, though, there was more crap.

Crimea

It's part of Russia again, and won't be undone.  In the meanwhile, Ukraine is a mess, economically, and probably about to get worse, thanks to the IMF.  Look forward to shitloads of austerity, Ukrainians.  It's been six years of hell for Greece, and it will be worse for you.  Maybe you can overcharge the Crimeans for water, and make the Russians absorb some of the pain.

Israel and Palestine

Abbas will not agree that Israel is a "Jewish State," because that will accept the second-class status of Arab-Israeli citizens.  I no longer believe in the "two-state solution," if I ever did.  It's time for Israel, the settlements, and the rest of the West Bank to become a single state, with equal rights for all.  The Hassidim and the Arabs can compete to see who will reproduce more like the proverbial rabbits to see who stays in control.  Too bad for the secularists, but that's how the sperm splatters.

Barack and Francis

Okay, they've met, and sort of seem to agree that some degree of income redistribution is needed.  The big difference (apart from differences regarding abortion and birth control) is that Obama's perspective is political and the pope's interest is moral.  (My interest, by the way, is sociological.)

Greece

Supposedly, Greece now has a balanced budget.  Unfortunately, it still has a 25% unemployment rate.  If it experiences any GDP "growth," ordinary Greeks won't see any of it.

More depressing crap.

Assorted stuff for late January

State of the Union

I'll try listening to Our President tonight if I can manage to stay awake.  I'm not expecting much, but I like the idea of compelling new federal contractors to pay a higher minimum wage.  Those contractors may employ as many low-wage workers as Wal-Mart or the fast food industry, so it's conceivable that some honest competition for workers might happen.

Needless to say, I don't expect anything about more aggressive actions against the Thieves of Wall Street.  If you haven't read Matt Taibbi's Griftopia, read it.  It's not at all out of date.

Turkey

Erdogan's putsch against everybody who might prosecute corruption in his government gives us less confidence in the possibility of an actually ethical Muslim government.  Erdogan was the poster child for democratic Islamist governance, but Turkey just is descending into the usual autocracy.

Stock Prices

Prices are down, popularly blamed on troubles in developing nations hurt by the possibility of economic growth in the USofA and Europe.  Oh, yeah, some also are blaming the "tapering" of bond buys by the Fed.

Essentially, it doesn't make a damned bit of difference.  Your 401K may dip a little, but one way or the other, it won't be enough to support you in your old age.  The big players, of course, continue to have everything they've already stolen, and continue to steal more.

Pete Seeger

He lasted a long time, but I'm still sorry to see him go.  Totally apart from the politics, he was a hell of a good clawhammer banjo player.  Bye, Pete.

Share the Blame

Our President appears to have decided that it in his best interest to get Congressional approval for military action against the Assad regime in Syria.  If it turns out to be a total screw-up, which appears to be increasingly likely if he goes ahead with it, it won't be only his fault.  If Congress turns him down, as Parliament turned down David Cameron, he can breathe a sigh of relief and back down.  The cowards in Congress will be responsible for their failure to avenge those dead children.  Politically, it's the smartest thing he could have done.

The Syrian civil war, essentially, is the most recent outbreak of a regional conflict between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims that began back in the seventh century.  We can't solve it, and the smartest thing to do is not try.  It comes down to Iran (where the US is "the Great Satan") v. Saudi Arabia (the home of Al Qaeda.)

Furthermore, no multinational corporations seem very involved in Syria, so why should the Army of the Multinationals (ours) get involved?  Let's wait for a real threat to the bankers, the arms merchants, the commodities traders, et al.

I'm kind of glad August is over.

Those Guantanameros, Again

I guess the hunger strike makes it a lot harder for Obama to ignore what's going on in George W.'s jail.  Well, dealing with it will not be that hard.  If every last one of the 166 inmates (most of whom probably wound up in Cuba because somebody in Afghanistan thought it would be nice to collect a bounty) becomes a violent terrorist, it will not make a big difference.

Another 166 terrorists (and those who have not been radicalized surely ought to have been by now) will not especially shift the world balance of terrorists to non-terrorists.  It will be statistically insignificant.  Pretty clearly, they won't get into the United States, nor Europe.  Iraq and Afghanistan already are totally fucked up, so, really, who cares?

Lindsay Graham and John McCain will jump up and down, and the Heritage Foundation and similar groups will spurt diarrhea all over the talk radio stations, but really, who cares?  That's what they do, so we ought to be used to it by now.

Let's just put an end to it.  Maybe some of us will regain a little respect for Our President.

Compromises

The chained consumer price index, as a measure of inflation, makes a certain amount of sense.  It certainly is true that consumers will substitute cheaper goods for more expensive goods when prices increase.  Old people like me, whose Social Security payments are not the greatest part of our income, can cut back from shell steak to pork tenderloin; or from 85% lean chopped meat to 70% lean chopped meat; or from fresh asparagus to canned string beans.

The substitution effect makes sense, up to a point.  If you're already eating cat food as your primary source of protein, what in hell do you substitute?  People actually trying to live on Social Security cannot survive a chained consumer price index.

If Social Security were means tested, I could survive it — but if it were means tested, Social Security would be eroded down to nothing.  Nobody really gives a shit about the people who depend on it for their survival.  The most important thing about Social Security is that everybody gets it, so even rich people get it (and generally more than poor people do.)

So, if a "grand bargain" comes about, and it includes a chained consumer price index, you should be aware that Obama has sold you out to the fucking plutocrats.  Okay, he's looking for a deal.  I don't care.  We don't need a grand bargain.  We need justice.

Crisis Fatigue

I guess I ought to say something about the sequester, but I'm not entirely sure why.  According to various polling groups, most Americans are not paying a hell of a lot of attention.  More than anything, that seems to be due to crisis fatigue.  Americans have approached the edges of too many cliffs in recent years, and seem most inclined to close their eyes, put their fingers in their ears, and sing, "Lah lah lah lah lah I can't hear you!"

40% of those who might be paying attention, according to the pollsters, think we just should go over the cliff and see if we bounce.  The economists say we won't bounce, but might not leave too deep a dent behind.  The biggest losers are likely to be defense contractors, so a lot of liberals don't much care.  A lot of conservatives just want less government, and they're not too particular about how it happens.  The fact that sequestration was designed to be stupid and mutually destructive to both parties apparently has been forgotten.

Then there are the politics.  It looks like more people will blame Republicans than Democrats for whatever damage is done, but the truth is that the battle was lost by the Democrats in 2010 — when Republican candidates won over so many state legislatures and control over redistricting.  Far too many of those Republican House seats are far too safe now, and will be until 2020.  Maybe, had Obama been less of a "compromise seeker" and more of a populist, that wouldn't have happened.

You can't "postdict" the past any better than you can predict the future.  All we can say right now is that most Americans are sick of it.

Beware the "Grand Bargain"

The general public seems to believe that what Bernanke called "the fiscal cliff" (and Krugman called "the austerity bomb") has been averted.  It hasn't, of course.  Sequestration and lifting the debt ceiling were kicked down the road a couple of months, but nothing, really, is settled.

During his first term, Obama seriously sought a "Grand Bargain" on tax increases and spending cuts with John Boehner — but Republicans, possibly convinced by too rich a diet of Fox News, declined, thinking they could take the Presidency and possibly the Senate as well in the 2012 elections.  Well, they were wrong.

The problem now, though, is that Obama still wants a "Grand Bargain," and probably still is willing to make entirely too many concessions on what currently are called "entitlements," but which used to be called "the social safety net."  (Yes, the progressives let the conservatives select the lexicon again.  When Republicans talk about "reforming entitlement programs," what they mean, really, is "shredding the net.")

Well, there are some changes that could be steps in the right direction.  The salary cap for FICA contributions could be lifted — or, better yet, entirely eliminated — to build the Social Security trust fund.  Since that trust fund may be invested only in government bonds, perhaps the Fed could create a new instrument — available only to the trust fund — that actually pays a little interest.  Since the Fed creates money out of thin air, it wouldn't cost taxpayers a cent, so beefing up the trust fund would not have any negative impact on the general economy.

What Medicare needs more than anything is what insurers call a more favorable experience rating — that is, it needs more members paying in who need less health care.  Hence, it makes no sense at all to raise the age of eligibility to 67, since the youngest members use the fewest services.  What should be done is to open up Medicare coverage to much younger participants.  The best way I can see to do that is to allow Medicare to compete against the private companies on the Affordable Care Act exchanges.  Uh huh, that good old public option — but there's no doubt it would cut costs.  The real solution, of course, is single payer for all.  Don't miss Eduardo Porter's column in yesterday's Times!

Needless to say, eliminating corn subsidies and the corn-based ethanol requirement for gasoline would free up a lot of money for food stamps, and raising the minimum wage to a living wage would help increase all kinds of tax revenues while reducing income inequality.  Yes, prices might have to rise, but poorer people tend to spend whatever extra income they receive, boosting sales.  That means more profits for (real and alleged) small businesses, and more employment.

I could go on, but why bother?  None of the above will happen.  After all, as Will Rogers said, "We have the best Congress money can buy."

In Memory of Elliot Carter

Elliot Carter was my introduction to modern music.  His Sonata for Flute, Oboe, Cello & Harpsichord and Sonata for Cello and Piano may have been the first modern works I purchased – on LP, of course, cover illustration attached — albeit my first purchase may have been Peter Maxwell Davies' Eight Songs for a Mad King.  Who remembers, when it's that long ago?

Elliot Carter died a very old man, and was productive right up to the end of his life.  May any of us so productive last so long.  Okay, not many of us are anywhere near so productive, and we probably ought to die a hell of a lot sooner.

In case you were wondering, I got into the booth today and voted for Jill Stein.  Ideology outweighed unwarranted guilt, and if Obama loses my very safe state, he indisputably deserves it, Sandy notwithstanding.  I'm pretty sure, though, he didn't.

Undecided?

As regular readers know, I am not a great admirer of President Obama.  Living in a "safe" Democratic state, I was feeling entirely comfortable about voting for Green Party candidate Jill Stein for president.  After all, I'm pretty much in total agreement with the Green platform.  So, why not?

Then, I turned on the TV tonight, and I saw Romney grinning his grin and rolling his eyes and tilting his head and turning my stomach.  I saw ads from Restore Our Future and Crossroads GPS, and it occurred to me that while I'm not a great admirer of Obama, I still like him a hell of a lot better than Mitt.  If I vote for Jill Stein, I'm wondering, am I equating Obama and Romney?  That certainly is not my intention.

Hey, how about that?  I'm an undecided voter!  Honestly, I didn't think we existed!

Unlike a lot of so-called undecided voters, though, I'll go to the polls tomorrow.  While my vote for president essentially doesn't matter, I've got a Congressman in a hardscrabble fight to keep his seat, and an absurdly corrupt state legislature where my selections just might make a difference.  (Okay, that's extremely unlikely.  Whoever I vote for probably will be just as corrupt as his opponent, and all the rest of them.)

Tomorrow, I think I'll just leave the TV turned off — except, maybe, for John Stewart and Stephan Colbert.  Whoever wins, I reckon I'll need a laugh.

Recent Events

Yes, I watched the final presidential debate, albeit I had to watch a good deal of it on the C-SPAN replay because I fell asleep on the live broadcast.  Maybe it was because I had tuned to CNN, and my attention kept shifting to that line graph showing how a group of "undecided" Florida voters, separated by gender, were responding to what the candidates had to say.  Watching that graph was, well, somewhat hypnotic.  Whatever.  I passed out, but dutifully watched what I'd missed later on.

Mind you, though, it's not as if the debate itself was especially stimulating.  It sounded pretty much like Romney would not do anything different from Obama, with the possible exception of rattling his spear with greater emphasis.  The only one who's talked truth to Bibi Netanyahu recently is good old Jimmy Carter, who observed that Bibi has abandoned the two-state solution.  I think that's a valid observation.

So, let's consider what that entails.  If there's to be just one state, the choice is between Palestinian citizenship in Greater Israel — and apartheid.  Granted, the ultra-Orthodox Jews are reproductive marvels comparable to the proverbial bunnies, but I still think the Palestinians, given that they are starting with larger numbers, would emerge victorious in the fecundity Olympics.  Hence, it's either apartheid or bye-bye "Jewish State."

No, it's not an encouraging situation.

Getting back to the alleged "debate," I did not notice any mention whatsoever of Europe.  At the moment, the most significant economic problem for the United States is the fiscal fuck-up in Europe, driving down our manufacturing exports.  Why did Our President not bother to mention that the European austerity policies, which Republicans want to impose on us, over here, have pushed Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland into depression and the UK and France into recession, soon to be followed by Germany and everybody else the Vaterland has bullied into submission?

It seems the GOP has done much too good a job creating deficit panic, and Obama is much too much of a pussy to fight back.

Short Subjects

The North Korean "threat"

So what if they have "the bomb?" The Great Leader Centennial Satellite Launch wound up, almost immediately, in a great many pieces. California is safe, and probably will remain safe until some Pakistani sells them a workable missile. Now that we've sort of been forced to agree to stop fucking over the Pakistanis, that's unlikely to happen. Come on — give North Korea the nutritional aid. Starving children are not building nuclear weapons.

Another Centennial

Well, the coincidence of the centennial of the birth of Kim Il Sung and the sinking of the Titanic is unlikely to have any cosmic significance. In my opinion, the James Cameron movie had the most poorly written dialogue of any movie (with the possible exception of "Godzilla vs. Mothra") ever produced. 3D will not improve that. Try to find the 1953 version, which (unwittingly) is a much better illustration of the class struggle.

"Never Worked a Day in Her Life"

Some mothers work hard at being full-time mothers. Other mothers do the whole mother thing and also hold down full-time jobs — usually because their families couldn't survive unless they did. Ann Romney had it easy, and Obama should have had the balls to point that out. The whole fucking "controversy" makes me feel ill.

Spain and Ireland

Austerity kills struggling economies. The Irish, at the moment, seem, at last, to be figuring that out — after being the "good children" of the Eurozone for too many years. It is to be hoped that the Spanish — trapped in a depression only exacerbated by forced austerity — figure that out sooner than the Irish did. Iceland, I believe, got it right: fuck the banks.

How dum r we?

It is no secret that Americans read little and none too well. American computational skills have necessitated the development of the modern cash register, which requires only that the human being be sufficiently competent to scan in a price, punch in the amount of cash presented, and count out the correct amount of change. (The operators of such machines generally earn more than minimum wage because of their superior skill sets.)

Hence, it comes as no surprise that there is a lot of support, out there, for assorted Republican candidates for the House, the Senate, and the Presidency. If you've had a look at Paul Ryan's latest budget proposal, you will understand that Ryan — like me — does not hold American intelligence in high regard.

Just two tax brackets?!!! Are you kidding?!!! (No.) Letting American corporations repatriate their foreign profits for free, forever?!!! (I know! Let's ship even more jobs overseas!) Let's not even bother to consider the extreme reductions to high income and corporate tax rates.

(Well, maybe we ought to at least think about them, because we Americans are not too bright. The justification for tax breaks to the rich is that they will invest more in our economy and, therefore, create jobs. Sounds good, except that when they got tax breaks under Bush, they invested their extra money in derivatives — not new business — and brought down the Western World. Derivatives represent fast money. Investments that create jobs represent slow money. Don't bet on the tortoise against the hare. You'll lose.)

I won't get into Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Pell grants, and the rest of the proposed Ryan cuts right now — suffice to say that the plutocrats grow fatter and grosser at the expense of the far more ordinary. Romney implies that the ordinary deserve to struggle all their lives, because they're dumb — and he deserves to be President because he embodies the "meritocracy."

Well, the ordinary are pretty dumb, but that doesn't mean they don't deserve decent lives — with decent incomes, decent health care, and what used to be very ordinary hopes for the future of their children. If we really had a meritocracy, Paris Hilton would be whoring out on the Tenderloin, and Romney's vast brood would have no greater opportunities than some very nice, bright kids who are growing up in East Harlem.

Watch Obama move even further to the right. Here, in the 21st century, money moves all mountains — and it makes me sick.

Why they Hate Him

Let's see. Could it be because he's a "socialist?" Well, some of them don't have a clue what a socialist is, and probably are dumb enough to believe the hype from Fox; but would a socialist get all that Wall Street backing?

Oh, wait! It must be because he's an abortion slinging, gay loving, social radical! Mmm... maybe not. He never talks about the "choice" vs. "right to life" controversy, still hasn't publicly endorsed gay marriage, and took a hell of a long time to end "Don't ask, don't tell.". Granted, he's not religious. He doesn't do all those church appearances we've come to expect from our presidents, and the connection to Reverend Wright was nothing but Chicago political expedience. Okay, it's clear he's not a social conservative. Maybe that explains some of the animosity.

Well, then there's the little matter of the blackness. That's reason enough for most of the white south and entirely too many working class white men, but it still seems inadequate to explain the extent and the intensity of the hatred. It certainly is not enough to ensure a Republican victory.

As you may have noticed, I haven't been too enthusiastic about him myself, for none of the above reasons. On the other hand, he's a mile above any of those assholes trying to win the Republican nomination (albeit John Huntsman wants to break up the big banks, and that goes a long way with me. I haven't heard it yet from Our Esteemed President, sure as shit.)

Actually, I suspect they hate him because they're taught to hate him — by Fox, ALEC, the Koch brothers, et al. I have to admit, that cabal does a pretty good job of it. Still, even with all the money in the world (which they seem to have,) it's hard to get someone to spring such a a really stiff hate-on unless there's some initial antipathy from which to work.

And, as you may have noticed, he kind of looks black.

Sexual Sidebars

According to yesterday's Times (and today's Times as well), the Pope of Pennsylvania (aka Penn State football coach Joe Paterno) is being pushed out of the job he's held for forty-six years for the little matter of neglecting to take appropriate action when given some lurid details of what assistant coach Jerry Sandusky was doing with that little boy in the Penn State shower room. Somewhat like the Pope in Rome, Paterno has been viewed as pretty much infallible by football fans. Even more like the Pope in Rome, Paterno was willing to let the sexual peccadillos of his underling go unreported to civil authorities, and probably for the same reason — money.


Like the Catholic Church, the Penn State football program depends on private contributions — and Penn State itself gathers about five percent of its revenues and most of its notoriety from its football team. Would the alumni be as inclined to contribute to a school that harbored kiddy diddlers? Would the faithful continue to top off the collection plates of a Church that harbored kiddy diddlers? Who knows? Better not to take the chance. Shove it under the rug, by all means.

* * *
Speaking of money, Silvio Burlusconi's adventures with underage prostitutes never did him a bit of harm, but threatening to bring down the Eurozone is another matter entirely.

***

Then there's that little matter of Herman Cain and the sexual harassment: since I am not of the female persuasion, I'm not entirely sure just what makes a woman "uncomfortable," but what Sharon Bialek describes certainly would make me "uncomfortable." I can't see any way to confirm the Bialek accusations, and I have no doubt that a lobbying group like the American Restaurant Association would pay off any woman (like Karen Kraushaar) ready to file a complaint, whatever the circumstances that provoked it. Well, so what?


Herman currently is blaming the "Democratic Machine" (would that it existed outside of Chicago) for his publicity problems, but his previous preferred hitman, Rick Perry, still seems a more likely choice. Perry has been wasting a hell of a lot of money garnering his 7 or 8 percent, and you just know he wants that nigra out of the competition. Obama, on the other hand, knows he can out-white Cain (because he is very nearly as white as Ivory soap.) Against Cain he can pull in the liberals, half the blacks, and the racists — and win the general election.

As for Mitt, he can't have any problem with Cain and Perry banging away at each other. His foremost problem is America, which sometimes can suss out assholes. I sincerely wish there were going to be a candidate who might win my enthusiastic vote, but I'm not counting on it — and it's certain that she (or he) never could win.

999?

Herman Cain has been shooting himself in both feet from quite a few different angles lately, but now that some major media have started paying attention to what econometricians make of his 999 plan, we should not have to wait too long for the shot to his head. Although all of 999 is a shameless giveaway to the rich, the real "killer" is the national sales tax.

Even innumerate Americans can understand that a 9.1% federal sales tax on every gallon of milk, every pair of new shoes, every gallon of gas, and everything else except for "used" items (used milk?) will cost them a hell of a lot of money. Ordinary Americans, who spend most (or all) of their incomes would be hit the hardest. Even those willing to ignore how a 9% income tax would devastate the working poor will come to view that sales tax with horror.

The rich, of course, whose incomes far exceed whatever they conceivably could spend, would pay an even smaller proportion of their incomes in taxes than they do now. I'm far too lazy to do the math and construct a chart showing the impact of "999" on people in different income brackets, but I assume somebody will do it fairly soon — probably some anonymous somebody from the Romney campaign. (It won't be the Obamanistas, who will be happy to see Republican infighting go on for as long as possible.)

In the meanwhile, most of the Wall Street money is going to Romney — and as far as politics is concerned, Wall Street money is the smart money. Needless to say, though, the financiers are hedging their bets by contributing to Obama as well. Then again, once there's a clear leader — of whatever party — they'll flood him with money. They always like the winner to think he couldn't have won without them. (It sure worked with Obama!)

* * *

Following up on my previous post: recent polling shows that a majority of Americans are sympathetic to the "goals" of the Occupy Wall Street movement — which shows that you really don't need specific policy goals to win public support. Most Americans don't have specific policy goals. They just get it.

Obama Mans Up

It is good to see Our President taking up the populist banner and telling us it's time to "soak the rich." I guess Plouff and Axelrod finally figured out that the old Clinton approach of "triangulation" wasn't working, and it was time to try the old Clinton approach of "doing whatever the polls say." A sizable majority of Americans want the rich to pay significantly higher taxes. Now, so does Obama.

"Class warfare," say the Republicans. I don't know about you, but I saw the class war begin thirty years ago, and guess what, fellow proletarians? We lost. If there really were any "class warfare" going on now, it would have to be a counterrevolution. The rich won the war outright, culminating in the Bush income tax cuts and, more important, the reduction of capital gains taxes to 15%.

I'm still not at all persuaded that Our President is on Our Side, but if it keeps Rick Perry out of the White House, whatever chicanery he attempts is okay with me. More important, delivering a strong, populist, anti-fat cat message could help the Democrats weaken or break the Tea Party grip on the Republican Party and the House, and also hang onto the Senate.

As for economic stimulus, the new tax proposals, even if they were enacted into law, would not do any more than the similarly doomed JOBS proposal; but, like the JOBS plan, they make for good politics. Anyway, the actual proposals don't matter, provided the president is seen as aggressively asserting his belief in them.

An unspoken but obvious truth of American politics is that independents don't know enough to make rational choices. Granted, most registered Democrats and Republicans also don't know shit from Shinola, but at least they have people telling them what to believe.

Independents ignore policy, and vote based on personalities. They particularly look for strength. One must hope that fourteen months is long enough for America to get over its perception of Obama as a wimp. If not, a raging asshole like Rick Perry might be our next president.

The JOBS bill: weak economics, great politics

Yes, having listened to the Republican debate, I felt obliged to listen to the President's "JOBS" speech as well. Since it was a bit more subtle than the debate, I listened twice.

The first thing I noticed, of course, was that Obama was taking an aggressive tone — something he hasn't done since before he was elected. I'm wondering if David Plouffe, chief Obama political adviser and architect of Clinton's "triangulation" approach, might be tendering his resignation soon. Damn, I hope so, but I suppose that even Plouffe must have learned something over the past two years. It really is time for a new, ballsier* Obama.

*[Surprisingly, the word "ballsier" is not identified as a spelling mistake by my computer's dictionary.]

I liked the fact that the White House "leaked" a $300 billion proposal, then came through with 50% more. Maybe Obama is finally getting the hang of how to negotiate. By presenting the Republicans with policies they supported in the past, he leaves them with the choice of going along with most of it, or looking like the obstructionists they are. Count on seeing about $300 billion worth of stimulus.

The new stimulus package, based on politics rather than economics, will do little or nothing to create new jobs, of course. I suppose it's conceivable that a further extension of unemployment benefits might make it through the House, but I wouldn't place any bets on it. That leaves the payroll tax cuts, the infrastructure projects, and some state aid.

Tax cuts rarely increase demand. Payroll tax cuts for workers only affect people who already have jobs. Some of them will use the extra money to pay down debt, and most of the rest will use it to increase savings in the face of job insecurity. (When their jobs are insecure, workers tend to take defensive stances — not yell "Whoopie!" and buy a new sofa or a trip to Vegas.) If employers get cuts to their share of payroll taxes, they'll just pocket the money. They won't hire new workers unless there's a lot of new demand — demand that can't be met by bleeding their existing workers dry.

As for the infrastructure projects, they're unlikely to generate new jobs for a year or two. Granted, we'll certainly still need those new jobs in a year or two, and the jobs have to be done, but I can't see any great increase in construction jobs any time soon.

As I've said many times before, though, federal aid to the states can be one of the best things Congress can do. Yes, it will be too little, too late, but at least some jobs could be saved — provided the aid is targeted at keeping state and local employees from losing their jobs. We really don't need any more subsidized sports arenas, for example, providing short-term construction jobs followed by long-term tax drains.

To me, the jobs bill the President will be sending along to Congress was a pleasant surprise. It already has the likes of Eric Cantor on the defensive, and it just might give the Democrats a boost in the next elections.

On the other hand, it's hard to imagine any real economic progress any time soon.

The Speech

We don't know what Barack Obama will say to draw viewers away from the opening game of the NFL season next week, but Robert Reich has thought about it. You will find his thoughts here.

Sadly, his ideas would require that Our President grow a set of balls. I don't see much chance of that happening, of course.

Read Reich. He says it a lot better than I could.

Rick Perry

I know I'm not allowed to make predictions anymore, but I really think Rick Perry is the most likely Republican presidential candidate for 2012. Needless to say, it has nothing to do with policy, promises, or, for that matter, politics.

He's tall. He has good hair. He's aggressive. He's Texan tough.

Oh, crap! He's the perfect candidate! Not only can he win the Republican nomination, but he can beat Obama in 2012. Americans, by and large being assholes,will ignore the fact that his brains are up his ass, that he's a total lackey of the corporate elite, and that he doesn't believe in climate change, evolution, women's rights, or the scientifically established age of the world.

Those of you old enough to remember when Clinton beat Bush the First will remember the most important advantage Clinton had: back then, they called it "the wimp factor." Yes, G.H.W.Bush was widely regarded as a wimp. Now, let's consider our current chief administrator.

Oh, shit! This time around, wimp is an understatement.

"President Perry" is, to me, about as awful a situation as I can imagine. If he really is the Christian airhead he portrays himself to be, we're in for big trouble. If he's actually the shit eating dog of the capitalist establishment I suspect he might be, we're in for much bigger trouble.

Wimp-in-Chief Obama seems to be trying to grow a set of, at least, marble sized ones lately, but he'd better grow them a lot faster if he wants to hold onto his office. Once, as I recall, he said he'd rather be a good one-term president than an ineffective two-term president. He didn't mention the possibility of being an ineffective one-term president.

But, on the other hand... Rick Perry?