Meanwhile, elsewhere...

Preoccupied with the chaos of our own national politics, it's easy enough to ignore the political chaos going on elsewhere.  Despite the best efforts of Our President, America certainly can't claim a monopoly on dysfunction; so let's take a moment to check in on a couple of our friends overseas.

If the test of a true compromise is that neither side is happy with it, Theresa May's Brexit deal passes with flying colors, unable to gain majority support even within her own Conservative party.  It is scarcely less contentious among Labour and Liberal MPs; only UKIP remains committed, and that minority party of xenophobes and neo-imperialists appears to be in rapid decline.  In the meanwhile, it looks like the UK is headed for a hard Brexit – with no negotiated exit plan – at the end of March.

Most economists agree that a hard Brexit will damage the British economy, but most Britons, like most Americans, pay scant attention to economists: typically, economic arguments just aren't visceral enough to sway the average voter.  Brexit is an ideological controversy that somehow managed to detach itself from party politics; and since the political parties are divided, no coherent approach to addressing it has emerged.  While a second Brexit referendum seems like the only logical approach to resolution, it probably would further divide the British public.

Nevertheless, the British deserve a new referendum, given that the first one was largely based on lies.  This time, the choice is more clear: between a hard Brexit with none of the advantages of EU membership, and remaining within the bloc, accepting the restraints membership entails.

Meanwhile, in France, Emmanuel Macron has been gobsmacked by the yellow vest movement, a genuinely populist, virtually leaderless series of protests by working class citizens — despite the best efforts of Jeanne-Marie LePen on the right and Jean-Luc Mélanchon on the left to jump out in front and lead the parade.  Even though the protests are dying down, the sentiments underlying them remain strong.

Macron was supposed to be France's savior — the new leader of a new party that would sweep away the old dysfunction.  When he turned out to be yet another entitled rich boy with strong corporatist tendencies, the French were sorely disappointed.  Unlike our own entitled rich boy, though, Macron has been smart enough to make some concessions.  Will they be enough to salvage his political career?  Probably not.  His tax cuts for the ultra-rich seem firmly entrenched.

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Chaos notwithstanding, the multi-party democracies of Western Europe at least hold out the possibility of compromise and change.  In the US, though, it seems that our entrenched two-party system only can generate more division and more chaos.  The next two years of divided government are bound to be what the apocryphal Chinese curse calls "interesting times."

Timbuktu

When I was a kid, Timbuktu was a metaphor for the farthest reaches of the world.  Within the last few days, it's been the middle of a fight against Islamic militant crazies.  What we're finally discovering, though, is that it is a center of Sufi learning, and what might be the best of Islamic culture.  We still don't know how much damage the Salafi assholes did to the Timbuktu libraries and cultural sites, but there is one thing that is certain — for whatever remains, we have to thank the French.

When the French refused to join the USofA in the invasion of Iraq, and asshole Republicans started talking about "freedom fries," the French were a lot smarter than the Bush administration.  Okay, Parisians are no more tolerant of redneck tourists than, say, New Yorkers, but how can you fault them for that?  When Francois Hollande — self-confessed Socialist — sent a limited number of French troops into Mali, his decision made a lot more sense than when Bush sent a hell of a lot more Americans into Iraq.  In the Maghreb, there is a real threat.  Saddam Hussein was a very bad guy, but never a threat to American interests.  More than anything, he was a counterbalance to the Iranians.  Well, that's gone.

Vive la France.

Election Day!

Egypt, Greece, and France held elections yesterday, with mixed results.

In Egypt, needless to say, the Supreme Military Council (aka military junta) stripped the soon to be elected president of all his powers even before the first vote was cast, so nobody really cared what happened.  What will Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi do with his empty title?  Beats me.  Is it time to to heat things up again in Tahrir Square?  Maybe — but Egypt could make Syria look like Luxembourg.

In Greece, fear triumphed, mildly, over hope (or anger) with the "victory" of the New Democrats — who really are not all that different from the Clinton-Gore New Democrats of the USofA.  Obama may be thinking about genuinely joining a religion so he might more effectively pray for a financial turnaround in Europe.  So far, New Democracy has not managed to form a government.  I suppose Pasak will join in by tomorrow or the next day, provided the alleged "socialists" are offered enough graft — but that coalition will be very fragile.

Greece could be facing new elections in a matter of months, unless the Germans get the steel rods out of their asses and let Greece ease up on its current austerity program, which has driven the country into depression.  In case you hadn't noticed, Germany is the country that has profited most from the euro — the euro is worth a lot less than a deutschmark would have been worth at this point, and that has been the primary factor driving Germany's export oriented economy for many years.  The losers were the net importing Eurozone countries of the south.  As I suggested last November, the best way to save the euro would be to kick out the Germans and generate some healthy inflation.

The good news is that Hollande and his Socialists have solidified their political control in France, creating a counterweight to Merkel and the Germans with regard to austerity.  If it's not too late, the Greeks, Spaniards, and Portuguese will appreciate Hollande's efforts.  It might even cheer the sad, suffering Irish a bit.  Countries cannot afford to watch their best and brightest young people emigrate because there is no work at home.

Election Season

Tomorrow there will be elections in France, Greece, Italy, and Germany.  In November, there will be elections in the United States.  Not everybody may see just how those elections are interconnected, but if they don't, at the very least, they ought to try. The European voting should be seen as a plebiscite on austerity, the modus operandus of the European Union since the financial debacle.

The Italian elections are local but, like last week's local elections in the UK, may be an indicator of how the electorate is swinging.  The elections in Germany are for the Schleswig-Holstein region, and have the potential to push Angela Merkel out of power if the Social Democrats and the Greens do well and are able to form a coalition.

There is a lot more attention, of course, to the national elections in France and Greece.  Polling shows Francois Hollande, the Socialist, leading Nicolas Sarkozy.  France, unlike a bunch of other European nations, isn't quite in official recession yet — but the handwriting is on the wall.  Hollande says he wants European action to stimulate growth, and it seems the French populace is responding to that message.  The question, at the moment, is what kind of winning margin he can achieve (assuming he wins.)  Nobody knows which way the National Front (the Tea Party of France) will turn, if they bother to vote at all.  It would be very amusing is they went for Hollande.

The Greeks have sufficient parties and political schisms so that it is possible that no coalition government might be formed.  Most of Europe is hoping that the socialist Pasok party and the conservative New Democrats (makes you think of Clinton) gather enough of the vote to form a coalition government (!) that can pander to the Germans enough to keep Greece in the Eurozone — but the situation is really crazy.

At the moment, the United States too is in austerity.  The (inadequate) Obama stimulus has run its course; the Fed is standing pat; the states continue to dump cops, teachers, motor vehicle clerks, etc.  According to the most recent figures, job growth appears to be slowing.

The Republican answer to this is more austerity — albeit, unlike the Europeans, Republicans refuse to raise taxes (especially on the very rich), and hope to "balance the budget" on the backs of the poor.  The example of Europe sliding down the economic drain means nothing to the corporate elite, the rentier class, and the rest of the plutocrats.  Hell, it won't hurt them.

The vast majority of America (including Democrats) consists of economic illiterates.  Pointing out that so-called "balancing the budget" by decimating government is exactly what failed in Europe will do little good.  I really hope Obama has a plan — however shifty and devious — to overcome the stupidity of the American people.  Needless to say, I also hope that, somewhere in his heart, there is a little "Old" Democrat who will do the decent thing when he no longer has to worry about re-election.