Briefs

Qassim Suleimani
The Suleimani assassination would have made sense had there been reliable intelligence that it would set off a destabilizing power struggle within the Iranian government; but reliable intelligence, in either sense of the word, is not characteristic of the Tr*mp Administration.  The action's chief impact has been to put a damper on resistance to Iranian influence in Iraq.  While many attribute the killing to Our President's shoot-from-the-crotch strategic incompetence, one still wonders: How does it benefit Putin?

Mark Galli
Back in the 90s, liberals were broadly accused of practicing situation ethics: choosing to violate basic moral codes for the sake of some "greater good."  Currently, that philosophy's main adherents are conservative Christians, most of whom were outraged when Mark Galli's editorial in Christianity Today identified Tr*mp as "a near perfect example of a human being who is morally lost and confused."

Carlos Ghosn
Given the 99.9% conviction rate in Japanese courts, nobody can be surprised that somebody with the wealth and influence of Carlos Ghosn would find a way to jump bail.  Was Ghosn under-reporting his income, as charged?  Probably: it's what the super-rich do.  Does that explain why he was indicted?  Highly unlikely.

Elizabeth Warren
Clearly, the drop in contributions to the Warren campaign was a direct outcome of her waffling on "Medicare for All":  the left wing of the Democratic Party is in no mood for compromise.  Granted, some sort of compromise will be required to get any such program through Congress, but facing up to reality is never a winning strategy in electoral politics.

Hostages, etc.

One of the nice things about blogging is that one can speculate to one's heart's content without ever offering a shred of evidence to support one's "hypotheses."  It's kind of like being a talking head on cable news.  Anyway, here comes some (very) idle speculation regarding the IS hostage situation.

It begins to look a lot like the Islamic "State" is far less unified and coordinated than Abu Bakr al-Bagdadhi would have us believe.  First, there was the demand for a hundred million bucks a head for the two Japanese hostages.  When one head was sacrificed, the Japanese public scarcely blinked.  Haruna Yukawa, it seems, was a bit of a slacker, and nobody much cared what happened to him.

Then, the demand changed, with IS demanding the release of failed suicide bomber Sajida al-Rishawi for the remaining Japanese hostage, journalist Kenji Goto.  That's when the Jordanians, who are holding al-Rishawi pending execution, decided they would much prefer to have Jordanian pilot Muath Kassasbeh in the exchange, but needed proof he still was alive.  Proof was not forthcoming, and things remain up in the air as of this writing.

Okay, the first question is what in hell does IS want with al-Rishawi?  Some suspect she is somebody's sister or something, but the truth is, she's of no use to anybody.  The second question is, what makes anybody think IS would exchange two high-value hostages for a female who failed to blow herself up and then ran away?  And if Muath Kassabeh is alive, why can't IS produce him?

My guess is that ransom and exchange demands are coming from different factions of IS, and that they're not in especially close contact with each other — maybe not even talking.  No demands or explanations have been offered by al-Baghdadi, so who actually speaks for the Islamic State?

Schisms within IS would be good news for the ragtag band of "allies" fighting the jihadis, even if IS is not nearly as schismatic as its so-called enemies.  Can the CIA or the DIA shed any light on the situation?  Probably not — and, anyway, they're not talking.  They're never talking.

...

I got around to seeing "American Sniper," and I've concluded that all the hot air surrounding whether Chris Kyle was a hero or a psychopath is just that — hot air.  Pretty clearly, Chris Kyle was a victim of the Iraq War, but so were tens of thousands of other people, and their number continues to grow.  I thought I detected a strong component of preexisting OCD along with PTSD, but it's not possible to make a diagnosis based on a fictionalized version of a guy's life.

Is the film racist?   Seen through Kyle's eyes, or the eyes of a substantial majority of the Americans who fought in Iraq, the film had to be racist.  The fact that we never meet any "nice" Iraqis is not a deficit of Eastwood's filmmaking — he told his story from a GI's point of view, and I think he did a good job of it.  Talking to an empty chair at the Republican National Convention certainly should not disqualify him from winning a few Oscars.

Hot (Fuel) Rods

It's interesting that the main threat from the Fukushima nuclear mess arises from spent fuel rods — that is to say, the waste products of power generation. The spent rods, busily boiling away their containment pools, appear to be considerably more dangerous that the reactors themselves.

Here in the United States, we've been trying to figure out what to do with spent nuclear fuel for about forty years now. Burying everything under a geologically unstable mountain out on an Indian reservation was a popular idea for a while, but moving the stuff down the interstates to Utah or wherever was a lot less popular. Right now, keeping all the waste on-site — like Fukishima — is the official solution. Communities that want the plants get to keep the waste too — forever.

The Chinese, who have been opening nuclear plants at an unbelievable rate in recent years, just put a hold on. I guess even the Communist Party recognizes the pervasive corruption of their management class, and Japan got them wondering just how many nuclear plants have been built with substandard concrete and duct tape. The US management class, one presumes, is a bit more subtle in its corruption, but Americans have plenty of opportunity to observe (from Enron through Madoff and beyond) that a quick buck often is irresistible.

Yes, Mr. President, I understand that building nuclear plants is the fastest way to reduce out carbon footprint without (heaven forbid) compromising our profligate lifestyles. Just the same, I think a little rethinking is in order.