2020

Do you remember this guy?  He's Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland: a traditional liberal who could have been President of the United States.  Think back to the Democratic primary debates of 2016 — got it now?  He was that "other guy" on stage with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.  I don't doubt for a moment that he would have been a stronger candidate against Tr*mp than either of his opponents.

Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing O'Malley get the nomination in 2020, if he decided to try again — but he won't.  Neither will Oprah, who is one of the smarter celebrities out there.

Can the Democrats blow it again with the wrong candidate?  Here's a hint: they ran Adlai Stevenson against Eisenhower a second time after he lost spectacularly the first time.  Even against Tr*mp, the most unpopular president in any living person's memory, Democrats could go wrong.

The Tr*mp presidency has liberated intrinsic American racism and sexism.  Despite backlash from #blacklivesmatter and #metoo, the infection is deep, virulent, and not nearly so embarrassing to the infected as it was a decade ago.  To win in 2020, Democrats just might have to put yet another white male at the top of their ticket.  Have no doubt that the Democratic establishment is struggling with the problem of satisfying its black and progressive female voters while bringing along enough of Middle America to gain an electoral victory.

Obama won the presidency because he never seemed black enough to threaten white America.  Corey Booker has those skills and much of the same charisma, but party leadership must be wondering whether Obama used up that particular kind of appeal.  Kamala Harris could do well with Democrats on the left, but her chief appeal to the party leadership might be as a black female running mate to a "dependable" white male.

Elizabeth Warren's focused sincerity, intellect, and genuine populism might make her the strongest female contender, but too many men (like Tr*mp) find her threatening.  Kirsten Gillibrand is too strongly identified with feminism for those same men — and there are lots of them — but would be another strong contender for the number-two slot.

So what about the white males?  The geezers in contention are Bernie Sanders, who sounds ready for another run, and Joe Biden, who wishes he hadn't dropped out last time.  Are millennials ready for more gerontocracy?  Neither Sanders nor Biden is much older than Tr*mp, and Biden would have a strong shot at the presidency even if the Republicans dump Tr*mp for a less embarrassing candidate.  The most attractive candidate among the younger white men might be Sherrod Brown: progressive, handsome, and from Ohio.

With any luck, Andrew Cuomo will be too wrapped up in ethics investigations to have a serious chance at the nomination.  I've sworn off making predictions, but I see a very strong possibility that frightened Democrats will dust off Biden and let him try again.

The Harold Ford Strategy

Harold E. Ford Jr., former Congressman from Tennessee, appears ready to mount a primary challenge against current New York Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand. Why?

Look no further than Wall Street.

Gillibrand is considered vulnerable, because she was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat by now less-than-popular Governor David Patterson, who himself gained office by virtue of Elliot Spitzer's little problem with prostitutes. Gillibrand has not attracted much attention from the media, but she has been a dependable vote with the Democratic caucus in the Senate — what some, including Ford, might call a "hack."

Ford came to New York to take a job as a vice-chairman at Merrill-Lynch (now part of Bank of America), and it is with the encouragement (and, no doubt, the contributions) of his buddies on Wall Street that he will be making his primary run. Let's see how that could work out:

1. He could lose his primary bid, but the contest would deplete the Gillibrand war chest, thereby making her more vulnerable to a Republican challenger.
2. He could win the primary and the general election, thereby giving Wall Street another "moderate" Democratic shill in the Senate — from a state with a largely liberal population.
3. He could win the primary and lose the general election, thereby giving Wall Street a typical Republican stooge in the Senate.

However Wall Street looks at it, backing Ford in a primary challenge is a great idea — and I have no doubt that there are thoughts of downstate black voters finding him more appealing than a white woman from Albany. It's almost diabolical. (Well, maybe deleting the "almost" would make that last statement more accurate.)

Okay, then, what do you want — a hack, a shill, or a stooge?

Me, I'll take the hack.