Briefs

The Phone Call
Maybe I'm overoptimistic, but this time it feels different.  Unlike the convoluted complications of the Mueller Report, the Tr*mp-Zelensky phone call is easy to understand — easy for people with only casual interest in the news to think about.  It might be enough to convince Pelosi and the Red State Democrats that impeachment isn't so bad an idea.

Iran
No matter where the drone attack on the Saudi oil installations was launched, everybody knows Iran was responsible.  That, of course, is what the Iranians intended: their layer of deniability was paper thin.  They showed the Saudis how vulnerable they are, and upped the ante on Tr*mp, who now is forced to choose between tanking his re-election chances with a war nobody wants, or looking like a wimp to his base.  Yes, Our President has been having a bad week.

Israel
If Avigdor Liberman manages to keep the ultra-Orthodox parties out of the ruling coalition, he'll have done one good thing in his life.  Benny Gantz is moderate only by comparison to Bibi (and, maybe, Liberman), so if he successfully forms a ruling coalition, it won't make much difference to anybody outside of Israel – nor to the Palestinians.  Still, it does provide the prospect of Bibi going to jail.

Déjà vu all over again

Clearly, I'm not the only one who started flashing back to 2003.  Remember Colin Powell at the UN with his tube of fake anthrax?  (We geezers also remember the Tonkin Gulf "incident" of 1964.)

This time around, the pastiche of "evidence" consists of a grainy black-and-white video and a lot of "trust us" from a pack of known liars.

Apparently the earlier attacks, discussed in my previous post,  were not sufficiently impressive.  The attackers escalated a bit – enough to create some better visuals and edge up oil prices, but not enough to impede traffic through the Straights of Hormuz.  Nobody died.

Most of the rest of the world is extremely skeptical of the claim that the Iranians are going out of their way to provoke a war with the US; a war that would be a lot more damaging to Iran than Tr*mp's punitive sanctions.  That leads many of TV's talking heads to opine that the attacks were carried out by "the more radical elements in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps" rather than its central authorities – slightly more plausible, but not by much.

According to Mike Pompeo, intelligence sources have concluded that no non-state actor could have launched the attacks, presumably excluding the Houthis and Hezbollah; but certainly not excluding the Saudis or the Emiratis, who have purchased more than enough high-tech weaponry from the US.  As for the skill set, Erik Prince and his Academi mercenaries are conveniently located in Abu Dhabi.

Of course, there is another state actor with very close ties to Erik Prince: the Tr*mp Administration, which may see open conflict with Iran as a means to gin up nationalist sentiment and distract from its leader's increasingly apparent dementia and/or psychotic breakdown.

Yes, this is a conspiracy theory: I have no solid evidence of its validity.  It is possible that Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who turned 80 in April, is battier than Tr*mp; or that somebody else's conspiracy theory is closer to the mark.  What is certain, though, is that the whole truth remains unavailable.

The "threat" from Iran

How do you win a war without actually fighting one?  You don't.  You can, however, create the appearance of war: engage in a lot of bloviating and sabre-rattling, and then declare victory.  You don't need a real war to "wag the dog."

When I saw the first photographs of the damage done to those oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, I was, to say the least, incredulous — describing the damage as "minimal" is an overstatement.  No oil was spilled; no flames; no casualties.  Compared to the attack on the USS Cole in 2000 or the attack on the Limburg tanker in 2002, the recent acts of sabotage were flea bites.

All four tankers were able to proceed under their own power: there was no disruption of traffic in or around the port of Abu Dhabi, to the great "relief" of the Emiratis. If the Iranians truly were responsible, it's evidence that they're too incompetent to present a credible threat to anybody. Just the same, the "attacks" helped to justify the accelerated buildup of US military force in the region and the sale of $8 billion worth of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In the absence of any evidence implicating Iran, the obvious question is qui bono? — and the obvious answer is Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Tr*mp Administration.

Then there is the "intelligence" indicating Iran presents a "credible threat" to US forces in the region.  Such intelligence always exists: what changes is its interpretation, depending on what those who control it want it to say.

Those who want evidence of Tr*mpian "collusion" with a foreign government will do better examining the Saudis than the Russians.  Everybody expects Saudi support for Jared's "peace plan" for Israel and the Palestinians (and nobody will be surprised if the plan seeks to institutionalize apartheid in the name of "economic development.")

One final note: Erik Prince runs Academi, the successor to Blackwater, out of Abu Dhabi — and he employs a substantial number of former Navy Seals.

Briefs

Iran
Anybody who was paying attention back in 2003 should be experiencing an ominous sense of déjà vu about now.  One big difference is that the news media are a lot less likely to be suckered today than they were last time, so Bolton's regime change plan for Iran shouldn't go over quite as well as the plan for regime change in Iraq did.   Given the suffering US policy has created for the Iranian people, it's hard to imagine how any democratically elected government in Iran could be friendly to the US.

Trade War
Congress is less partisan about Tr*mp's tariffs than it is about most issues, although Republican opponents are not especially vocal about it.  It makes perfect political sense that a Rust Belt Democrat would back the tariffs, but I suspect some other Democratic supporters just want Our President to crash the economy in time for 2020.  The main sticking point in negotiations seems to be US insistence on changes to Chinese law, an embarrassing compromise of Chinese sovereignty.  Such changes hardly seem necessary: Xi is just as likely to ignore Chinese law as Tr*mp is to ignore American law — but a lot less likely to be called on it.

Venezuela
While plenty of Venezuelans – especially the more affluent – would love to dump Maduro, they don't seem to be especially enthusiastic about Guidó either.  It's unclear just what kind of compromise Swedish diplomats hope to facilitate, but it won't be an easy task.  Any deal will have to satisfy two belligerent incompetents: Maduro and Tr*mp.  Guidó doesn't count anymore.

Bully Diplomacy

I hate bullies; but even more, I despise those who succumb to bullying.  Now that bullying is America's official, default foreign policy, I only can hope that its intended victims have the courage to resist.

Iran, of course, has no choice but to resist: it is not about to "negotiate" regime change, and nothing less than that will satisfy the Tr*mp gang (which includes Bibi and MbS.)  The courage will have to come from Europe, and how much courage European leaders can muster remains to be seen.

Despite the easing of sanctions under Obama, US investment in Iran was minimal following the nuclear agreement: US companies continued to be limited by other sanctions protocols, and benefits to the Iranian economy fell far short of what Rouhani and his moderates hoped to see.  Europeans were less restrained, so the impact of US withdrawal from the deal depends on European willingness to go along.  It still remains to be seen what secondary sanctions the Tr*mpistas decide to impost on European companies that remain in Iran.

While secondary sanctions against US "allies" would be economically damaging, Macron and Merkel might be willing to endure them for the political advantage that might entail.  Anti-Americanism is a tried and true means of garnering nationalist support, so a "principled" stand against the Tr*mpians well might draw away supporters of the National Front in France and the AfD in Germany.  Suing the US at the WTO would be a good start, but withdrawing their ambassadors to the US in protest would be a sure bet for solidifying voters behind them.

If any diplomatic intelligence remains in the Tr*mp administration, secondary sanctions against the Europeans will be minimal, and the denuclearization of Iran can continue.  If the yahoos prevail, though, we only can hope Europe finds the courage to resist.

The Mess in Iran

To begin understanding the current situation in Iran, it may help to remember some history.  In 1953, US and British intelligence agencies fomented a coup against Mohammed Mossadegh, the democratically elected Prime Minister.  When Mossadegh nationalized the Iranian oil industry, the oil companies thought they'd rather do business with the Shah, unencumbered by democracy.

Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi ruled a police state until he was ousted in 1979.  Under his rule, Iran westernized and secularized; the cities prospered and women got the vote, while enemies of the state – Islamists and Communists – were executed or forced into exile.  Resistance to the police state came to be associated with resistance to westernization, so Islamic clerics came to lead the political resistance, and conservative Shi'a Islam became the ideology of revolution.

In the quarter-century the Shah was in power, though, a lot of urban Iranians came to lead quite secular lives.  While the rural population welcomed Islamic rule, city dwellers never quite came to terms with rule by the Ayatollahs. Still, US support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War helped maintain their support for the Islamic Republic.

Teheran, though, has remained relatively quiet in recent days; the strongest opposition to the regime comes from the small cities and towns far from the capital.  The most loyal supporters of the Ayatollahs now are expressing the greatest discontent.  Economic problems caused by mismanagement and corruption are the focus of their concerns, problems magnified by economic sanctions that were loosened but certainly not eliminated by the Iran nuclear agreement.  Exclusion from the US banking system makes trade even with willing partners very difficult.

A few demonstrators are reported to have called for a return of the Shah, but the largest number of Iranian monarchists currently are growing old in Los Angeles, and no news organizations are clamoring to interview the Crown Prince.  Our President's tweets "in support" of the protestors help only the current regime: any Iranians who long for a return of Anglo-American petroimperialism are well-advised to their heads down.

Word is that the budget documents that sparked the current unrest were leaked to the public by Hassan Rouhani, to call attention to large expenditures on religious institutions and the Revolutionary Guard.  Iranians might have tolerated a reasonable amount of graft and cronyism in a better economic climate, but not while living standards continue to decline.

The thing to watch for now is how the demonstrations alter the balance of power between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's archconservatives and President Rouhani's moderate reformers.  Security forces are likely to put an end to the demonstrations quite soon, but the political impact on Iran remains to be seen.

Tr*mp to Kurds: F*ck you

So, the Russians, the Iranians, and the Turks sat down in a room to "resolve" the civil war in Syria.  Needless to say, the chief objective of the Russians and the Iranians is to keep Bashir al-Assad in power.  Turkey, a purported NATO "ally," is anxious to cooperate with Iran to achieve its own most cherished goal: suppression of the Kurds.

The Kurds have been America's only dependable ally in both Syria and Iraq, and were instrumental in reclaiming territory from the Islamic State.  They are the only force now standing in the way of Assad exercising complete control over Syria.  According to the Washington Post, when Turkish strongman Recip Tayyip Erdogan asked Tr*mp to stop providing arms to the Syrian Kurds, Tr*mp's response was, "Sure, buddy!  Anything for a pal!"

Tr*mp, of course, admires Erdogan's style of leadership; but America's stubborn loyalty to an undeniably autocratic Erdogan seems to have just one real objective: maintaining the US presence at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey.  To do that, both the Administration and military leaders seem willing to empower both Iran and Russia.  Iranian client Hezbollah appears to have solidified control over Lebanon, Iranian ties to the al-Abadi regime in Iraq are stronger than ever, and we can assume Russia's military occupation of Syria will expand: without US support, Kurdish control of northern Syria is doomed.

Now that Erdogan has destroyed the secular legacy of Ataturk, the Kurds are the only ones in the region willing to keep government separate from the practice of Islam; and even though Turkey is Sunni and Iran is Shi'a, Erdogan and Rouhani see no impediment to uniting against the Kurdish "threat."  Haider al-Abadi will happily join the club, anxious to gain control of Kurdish areas of northern Iraq.  America's fourteen-year investment of lives and money in Iraq will have been entirely wasted.

The Kurds, after a century of oppression, deserve to have an independent homeland; and it is in the best interests of the US that they succeed in their quest.  Deserting them now only means more regional power for Russia and Iran, and diminished US influence in the Middle East.

Can the Middle East get even worse?

Sure it can — and the cheerful young man you see here is just the one to bring that about.  Now apparently in complete control of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman already has exacerbated regional turmoil, and promises to do more.

For the past four decades, Saudi Arabia was stabilized by oil revenues, religious authority, and gerontocracy.  MbS, as he's known, aims for continued stability, with special emphasis on the stability of monarchical rule.  He very much enjoys being the man in charge — of everything.

Admittedly, keeping Saudi Arabia stable will not be simple for anybody, direct descendant of Ibn Saud or not.  MbS needs to diversify the national economy away from oil and gas while engaged in a complex contest for power with Islamic authorities.  Ultraconservative Islam has been the foundation of his family's rule, but also its most significant rival for power.  Attempts to relax the Kingdom's medieval interpretation of Sharia Law are met with powerful opposition.

The greatest potential for making things "even worse," though, arises from MbS's efforts against regional rival Iran.  After over two years of war crimes in Yemen (with US collusion) and spending many times what Iranians give Houthi rebels, he has produced what the UN calls the worst humanitarian crisis on Earth, and no sign of resolution of the conflict.

Nobody doubts considerable Saudi pressure on Saad Hariri when he announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Lebanon from Riyadh, nor that the move was intended to delegitimize Iranian ally Hezbollah's role in Lebanese government.  Apparently, MbS thought the pleasure of sticking a finger in Iran's eye was worth the risk of the Syrian Civil War spilling over the border into Lebanon.

The boycott and blockade of Qatar continues, punishing the Qataris for the sin of conducting diplomacy with Iran, with which they share vast natural gas reserves under the Persian Gulf.  The pure, spiteful pique involved is positively Tr*mpian.

Actually, it was just after a sleepover party with First Boy Jared Kushner that MbS seized all police power for himself and had about two hundred potential rivals arrested, including the oft-mentioned eleven princes.  The White House is quite fond of MbS, who exercises the kind of arbitrary authority Our President wishes he could have for himself.  In return for American support, we can expect MbS to weigh in on upcoming Israeli-Palestinian "negotiations," pressuring the Palestinians to accept whatever Bibi deigns to offer them.  (The Tr*mp "negotiating team" consists of three Orthodox Jews and a Coptic Christian.)

Saudi Arabia has potential as a manufacturing center because of its energy resources — including a huge and uninterrupted supply of solar when the oil runs out.  All MbS will need is a reliable pool of cheap labor.  Saudi men are unlikely to take those jobs, so "progress" in allowing women to work outside the home is a strong possibility, provided religious authorities can be brought along.  Failing that, there are bound to be plenty of impoverished Palestinians in the neighborhood.

Briefly

Peace talks
Turkey, Iran, and Russia (as a surrogate for Assad) have been discussing a plan to end the war in Syria.  It's an odd grouping, to be sure — they've been at each other's throats for decades.  In fact, they seem to have only one goal in common: preventing the establishment of anything resembling an independent Kurdistan.  Personally, I believe it is time for the USofA to stop toadying to the likes of Erdogan and Abadi and back the idea of a Kurdish state in Iraq and Syria — perhaps even with an eye towards parts of Turkey.  The Kurds are the most dependable friends we have in the region, and will remain so unless we betray them.

Nuclear Arms Race
If there is any more dangerous combination than belligerence, ignorance, and vanity, I can't think of it right now — although I suppose we should be grateful that Tr*mp, unlike many of his supporters, at least is not looking forward to the Apocalypse.

Settlements
I was pleasantly surprised when Obama instructed Samantha Power to abstain from, rather than veto, the Security Council vote condemning Israel's expansion of settlements on the West Bank.  It won't  make any difference on the ground, of course, but the president certainly must have enjoyed poking a parting stick into Netanyahu's eye.

The Berlin Aftermath
Angela Merkel's political future is looking dim, and so is the outlook for the EU.  Still, the waves of migration won't be stopped, driven by climate change and the brutal struggles for resources it foments.  As right-wing xenophobes come to dominate the West, any unified response to common threats seems less and less likely.

The Future of US Foreign Policy

In brief, prospects for ongoing US foreign policy are not encouraging.  The Donald's ineptitude is such that he is certain to defer to "the best generals" in matters of war and peace, and Hillary's stance in the 2008 primaries and as Secretary of State suggest that she will continue her ongoing attempts to prove she has enough "balls" to be "one of the boys."  Bernie Sanders will probably have significant impact on the Democratic platform, but the relationship between a party's platform and what happens when that party wins an election has little if any bearing on what its candidate does when elected to office.

The "War on Terror"
Tr*mp vacillates between isolationism and carpet bombing (along with use of torture and killing the families of terrorists), but his commitment to building the size and strength of the military makes one wonder if "boots on the ground" might be inevitable — the military-industrial complex would like that, since it could restore sales to 2010 levels.  Clinton has been largely silent on her suggestion of a "no-fly zone" in Syria lately, but her history on interventionism is troubling, including her vote for the war in Iraq and endorsement of intervention in Libya.  Neither has any fresh ideas for dealing with the Islamist State as an international threat, even if Obama's efforts to cut into the territory it occupies continue to make progress.

The Middle East
It seems clear that Clinton will maintain US support for the Arab autocracies, despite copious human rights abuses within their territories and Saudi war crimes in Yemen.  She also will be more friendly to Netanyahu's increasingly bellicose and repressive path for Israel than Obama has been, and the Palestinians will be out of luck, no matter what Bernie gets into the Democratic platform.  Tr*mp's support from Sheldon Adelson suggests that he will be even deeper in Netanyahu's pocket than Clinton; and his rejection of the Iran deal and insistence that the Saudi's "pay their own way" would be a recipe for a nuclear armed Middle East.  With regard to Assad, Tr*mp might be too conciliatory, Clinton too bellicose.

Europe
I don't know if anybody has considered problems that might arise from installing missile "defense" systems (against Iran? Yeah, right!) in Eastern European countries moving ever closer to fascism, but that probably can wait for 2020.  Neither US candidate has anything to offer Europe in dealing with its refugee crisis, and neither will use US influence over the IMF in an attempt to soften Europe's devastating austerity regime, albeit neo-liberal (aka neo-conservative) US bankers have a lot more influence than US political leaders.  Clinton certainly understands Europe's problems better than Tr*mp, but she's no less neo-liberal in her thinking than her husband was — and nobody knows what impact Tr*mp's affection for Putin might bring

Asia and the Pacific
The US Chamber of Commerce seems confident that Clinton will change her mind about support for the TPP as soon as she's president, and they're probably right.  Tr*mp seems to think he could negotiate a "better deal," but his confidence in his negotiating skills is just as inflated as his hair.  The Chinese, I suspect, couldn't care less which of them is elected because China's economic and military power is unlikely to be affected.  Tr*mp's fantasies of Japan and South Korea having their own nuclear arms would almost certainly remain fantasies, because not all Republicans are total idiots.

Africa
If Tr*mp can identify more than three African countries on an outline map, I'd be very surprised.  Clinton, at least, is aware of the mess that is African politics and economics, but is unlikely to move beyond Obama's very limited engagement there.  With either of them, Africa will remain on the back burner until something explodes.

Latin America
Haven't you had enough pessimism for one post?  It's certainly been enough for me, so I'll pass over Latin America — where the US has had virtually no policy at all since "our" dictators were overthrown — and save it for another day.  In the meanwhile, though, keep an eye on Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatamala, et al.  Tr*mp's "wall" won't keep the chaos south of the border.

Short takes

State of the Union
I had hoped for a little less subtlety in the president's critique of Republicans, given the density of many of those critiqued, but at least he's finally figured out that seven years of calling for bipartisan cooperation was a waste of time.

"Navigational Error"
Of course those naval patrol boats detained by the Iranians inside their territorial waters were "snooping."  Everybody "snoops" on everybody.  You could tell the Iranians were not especially surprised nor upset because they called it "snooping" rather than "spying," and their prompt release of the ten sailors demonstrates that the nuclear agreement is having a positive impact on relations.

Latest Republican Debate
I didn't watch, but I gather from the coverage that Cruz is trying to contrast himself with Tr*mp in an effort to gain "establishment" support.  I hope he succeeds, because that would be likely to hasten the demise of the Republican party.

Attacks in Cologne
Apparently sharia law has no great hold over young Muslim men in Germany, since the lads out groping German lasses were dead drunk.  Yes, they're pigs.  No, they're not terrorists.

Friedrichs v. California Teachers Association
If the Court overturns its 1977 decision which allowed public sector unions to collect agency fees for legally required representation of non-members, it will be an entirely political decision by the conservative majority.  As far as activism goes, the Roberts court makes the Warren court look feeble by comparison.

Mideast somehow manages to get worse

The Saudis are at it again, and the USofA, as usual, is letting them get away with murder. Literally.  Murder.

The beheading of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr (along with sixteen others who apparently don't matter to anyone) has sent any hope of diplomacy to solve regional problems into a tailspin.  The best known spokesperson for the Shi'a minority in eastern Saudi Arabia as well as for the Shi'a majority in Bahrain was exactly the wrong person to kill at this juncture if there is to be any hope of something resembling peace in Syria or Yemen, an effective coalition against IS, or a little more stability in Lebanon.

So the USofA sent a "naughty-naughty" message to King Salman the Senile, which will have no impact whatsoever on the likely instigator of the crisis, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud.  My heavens!  But what more can we do?

Here are a few suggestions:

• Stop providing logistic support to the Saudis in Yemen.  It hasn't done anything to limit Saudi aerial massacres of civilians; and without it, they just might lose and go home.
• Stop selling the Saudis advanced weapons systems.  Yes, the military contractors will whine about it, but there are plenty of other autocrats to arm around the world.
• Invite President Hassan Rouhani of Iran to meet privately with Obama.  Hint that they're close to relaxing the sanctions against Iranian oil.
• In diplomatic cables, refer to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the young dipshit behind the current mess, as "the young dipshit." Leak the cables to Wikileaks.

There no longer is any real need to suck up to Saudi Arabia.  Their control over oil prices has been sharply reduced by American fracking, and now that the USofA is exporting oil again, higher oil prices might even help the American economy.  Using the Saudis as a foil against Iran also no longer is necessary now that there's been at least a little thaw with the Iranians; but also because Saudi financed Salafists have done us a lot more damage than Iranian backed terrorists in recent years.  We wouldn't be inclined, nor encouraged, to build any sort of alliance with Iran, but there's no reason to take sides any more.  If we think "getting tough" works, let's get tough with both.

Briefly...

The Fed
Face it: the potential increase in the Federal Funds Rate of one quarter of one per cent is purely symbolic.  While it may "roil" the markets, it will have virtually no impact on the real economy.  Assuming you're not a hedge fund manager, you really shouldn't give a damn.

The Iran Deal
Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany made it perfectly clear that they would not maintain sanctions on Iran if the USofA failed to approve the deal, so all the opposition came down to Republicans determined to foil every Obama initiative and Democrats sucking up to AIPAC.  Thank you Barbara Mikulsky for finally dampening the bullshit, and screw you both, Chuck Schumer and Robert Menendez.

"Female Viagra"
Flibanserin, aka Addyí™, is not "female Viagra."  Viagra is just a boner pill, which allows older men with declining sex drive to fake it.  Flibanserin actually increases libido in some women willing to risk a long list of possible side effects.  Women don't need a Viagra-like drug because they already are quite capable of faking it without medical assistance.  If Valeant actually intends to pay Sprout Pharma a billion bucks for the rights to flibanserin, I'd sell my Valeant stock ASAP. 

Trump v. Sanders
Now wouldn't that be amusing, in a scary sort of way!

The Great Syrian Fuck-up

How fortunate are the Republican legislators, presidential candidates, and pundits who can sit back comfortably and rattle their sabers while the Obama administration muddles around hopelessly in Syria and Iraq!  A grand fuck-up it is, and so it shall be, barring, say, Divine Intervention, or something equally unlikely.

Remember those "moderate" rebels we were going to train, and who were going to beat back the assorted Islamists who have nothing in common save hating our guts?  According to today's Times, there are exactly 54 of them, and their leader and his lieutenant just were kidnapped by Al Nusra.  Then, in order to get Erdogan to let us use Turkish airfields to bomb what I shall henceforth call "the Islamist State" (aka all that other stuff), the Obamites have to sort of ignore the fact that the Turks are not especially attacking IS targets, but reserving their firepower for the Kurds, previously the most effective force against IS.

One reason we have been so unsuccessful in recruiting anti-IS fighters is that we refuse to go after the Assad regime, presumably because Assad is fighting IS.  Well, Mr. President, the PKK aligned militias under bombardment by Turkey are fighting IS too, Turkey wants Assad overthrown, Assad has committed war crimes, and nobody is supporting him but Iran.  Oh, wait!  I forgot that the Iranians are not quite so bad as they used to be.

Personally, I believe that the Kurds, PKK affiliated or not, are the only ones in the region worthy of support, and I sincerely hope they manage to carve out an independent Kurdistan from the shit gumbo the USofA is haplessly wading through in the Middle East.  I understand that Turkey has to remain in NATO for various geopolitical reasons, but maybe it's time for another secularist military coup over there.  Where's the goddamned CIA when you need it?

The Iran Deal

As long-term readers know, I couldn't care less if Iran becomes a nuclear power.  There are lots of nuclear powers in the world today, and none of them has used its bomb.  Even though it's well over half a century old, mutually assured destruction (MAD) still works.  India and Pakistan may rattle their silos from time to time, but they never launch.  Even if Israel didn't have enough nuclear weapons to vaporize all their antagonists in the region, Iran still would not risk using a nuke.  Hell, even Israel won't use its nuclear weapons unilaterally.

So, what's the benefit of a nuclear treaty with Iran?  More than anything, it brings the Iranians closer to the rest of the world.  By comparison with their neighbors, Iranians are better educated, less religiously fanatical, and much better disposed towards democracy.  After all, it was the democratic election of Hassan Rouhani that made the nuclear agreement possible.

Reintegrating Iran into the world economy will make it more responsive to external influence.  Alleviating the hardships suffered by average Iranians under sanctions will lessen the influence of the Revolutionary Guard and other right-wing elements.  Further sanctions will not work (see Cuba), and the only other alternative is war, which also will not work (see Iraq.)

The time to normalize relations with Iran is now.

How to Sabotage a Nuclear Agreement

An unsubstantiated rumor believed to have started on this blog, today, would have it that Paul Wolfowitz, neoliberal co-architect of the US invasion of Iraq, is currently on loan from the Jeb Bush presidential campaign to Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia (see post of April 4, below.)  If true, a Wolfowitz influence would go a long way towards explaining why Saudi Arabia has invaded Yemen to restore the "democratically elected" Hadi administration to power.

First, a word on that "democratic" election.  Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi ran unopposed, in an election boycotted both by the Houthis and Yemen's southern secessionists.  His previous experience was as vice-president to the "democratically elected" Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced to resign by the Gulf Cooperation Council, which consists of Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf.  Saleh and his loyalists now are allied with the Houthis.

In what looks most like a barefaced attempt to sabotage the agreement between Iran and its six negotiating partners announced last week, the USofA announced it would be supporting the Saudi invasion of Yemen.  (Note: Saudi Arabia is the number one armaments importer in the world, buys most of its weapons from the United States, certainly would not need any extra help if bin Salman were competent, and is unlikely to profit from whatever help is forthcoming.)

Why did Obama take exactly the wrong step at exactly the wrong time?  Did he intend to sabotage the proposed agreement by backing the Saudis and letting Kerry strongly suggest that the Houthis are Iranian puppets?  Was the intent to back out of the nuclear arms agreement while forcing Iran to take the blame?  Did he go out of his way to provoke the Grand Ayatollah?

That's how it looks to me — and I have no difficulty imagining Bibi Netanyahu, John Boehner, and all Congressional sucklers at the AIPAC teat (of both parties) sitting back with smug smiles on their faces.  Maybe there's something more subtle going on, but if so, it's too subtle for me.  What next?

Normalization

If the agreement with Iran is a genuine step towards normalization of relations, all of us should hope the process proceeds apace.  Iran is not the bogey-man, it is a modern state no more in the thrall of religious power bases than Saudi Arabia, and not all that much worse than the USofA.  The more diplomacy becomes possible in this screwed-up world, the less likely ordinary human beings trapped in conflict areas are to suffer.

In my last post, I proclaimed that it was "all about oil."  Maybe I'll walk that back a little, and leave a little space for testosterone.  It looks like King Salman might not be ruling Saudi Arabia*, given that he's vested most of his power in his son, Mohammed bin Salman — a thirty-year-old spared the "softening" influences of any European education.  He's the one who sent the warplanes off to Yemen, and has been saber-rattling about ground forces.  Yes, he wants us to know he's tough.

Another possible victim of testosterone is Bibi Netanyahu, albeit the testosterone may be more that of young settlers and Hasidim than his own.  As evidenced in the run-op to the recent election, Likud stays in power by tapping into fear.  Is Israel justified in fearing the Islamic world, especially Iran?  Maybe, but the fear is overblown.  As I've mentioned in the past, I'm certain that it would make no difference if Iran had a nuke, because it wouldn't be used.  The last estimate I read gives Israel over two-hundred nuclear warheads, mostly based on submarines.  Nobody is going to nuke Israel.

Frankly, it wouldn't hurt to "normalize" our relationship with Israel.  For many years, Israel has been America's spoiled child, accustomed to getting its way no matter what the consequences for we doting parents.  It's time for a little tough love.

*Right after he ascended to the throne, there was talk about Salman being in the early stages of dementia, but the talkers got their mouths zipped with all due dispatch.

Yemen

Is the enemy of my enemy, etc. etc... ?  Apparently not.

We have heard Yemen described as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and I suppose that's accurate enough a description.  We've also heard it described as an outgrowth of the classic Middle Eastern conflict between Sunni and Shi'a Islam.  That, I'm pretty sure, it is not.

The Houthi are adherents of the Zaydi sect, which is an offshoot of Shi'a Islam, but not nearly orthodox enough to satisfy the clerics who hold power in Iran.  Iranian Muslims supporting the Houthi because they're, sort of, Shiite, would be kind of like the Roman Catholic Church supporting Seventh Day Adventists because they're sort of...  well, you get it.

Move over to Iraq, and you find Sunni clients of the USofA fighting the Sunni zealots of Daesh, aka all those other names and acronyms tirelessly repeated in the American press.  Why are Sunni fighting Sunni?  Not because IS (aka etc. etc.) is especially naughty what with the beheadings and whatnot.  No, it's all about the usual, just as it was from the time of the Cheney invasions or even the CIA's 1953 overthrow of the democratically elected Mosaddegh government in Iran and installation of the Shah.

It's about the oil.

That's why Saleh could be fighting the Houthi one minute and supporting them the next.  That's why the Egyptian military, an equal opportunity oppressor of Islamists no matter what branch of Islam they spring from, is out there trying to restore Hadi to power.  That's why Americans, even some in government, are having such a hard time figuring out how and why anybody is putatively allied with anybody out there around the Persian Gulf.

Don't be confused.  Just follow the money.  Follow the oil.

Bibi Speaks

I'll keep this short. Bibi Netanyahu came to Washington to bolster his tough-guy image in Israel and to land a body blow on Our President (aka "the schwartze") in aid of the Republic Party.  Get rid of the Dems, he figures, and the destruction of Iran is assured.

In case you hadn't noticed, the only possible alternatives to negotiation Bibi offered were truly crippling sanctions and military action.  Stronger sanctions and existential threats will leave Iran with no logical alternative but to hurriedly develop its nuclear capacity.  After all, Israel is believed to have upwards of 100 atomic warheads, and the means to deliver them.  If Iran resisted a conventional attack, would Bibi go nuclear?

Maybe.  The Evangelicals in the USofA would love that.  Their support for Israel arises out of their hope that the "End Times" soon will be upon us.  They figure on rapturing out and leaving the rest of us to deal with the mess left behind.

And a mess it certainly would be.

World Tour

Ukraine
It's getting to look a lot like a Russian win in Ukraine.  The most recent "cease-fire" never even got started, much less held.  There are those in Congress calling for the USofA to arm the Poroshenko Ukrainians, but that would do nothing to end the conflict or bolster the Poroshenko government — all it would do is confirm Putin's narrative that Russia is in conflict with an aggressive West led by the usual enemy (us).  The only remaining sanction that might make a difference is to deny Russian banks access to SWIFT, but that's something of a "nuclear option," and the USofA cannot do it unilaterally.

Libya
It's a mess, best avoided if at all possible, bearing in mind that just because some bunch of international criminals say they're part of Islamic State doesn't mean there's any real coordination.  If the Egyptians want to screw around there, let them, unaided by the USofA.  It's their border, and their citizens, not ours — and we always can be counted on to make things worse.

Nigeria
While the Goodluck Jonathan government is too corrupt and inept to stop Boku Haram, no likely alternatives have presented themselves.  Chad, we're told, is making some progress, and Niger and Cameroon are stirring, but only time will tell.  As long as oil prices remain low, nobody in the West will be bothered to do anything about Africa.

Israel and Iran
Netanyahu continues to agitate for a US military attack on Iran, but even American Jews are starting to have serious doubts about the sanity of Likud policies.  Hopefully, the era of knee-jerk Congressional obedience to AIPAC is ending.  Working cooperatively with Iran should not be any more difficult that working cooperatively with Saudi Arabia or, say, Turkey.  Face it, we don't give a shit about spreading democracy.

Argentina
Let's just hope Cristina Fernandez de Kirshner's government can hold it together.  The bourgeoisie are wavering, but she still has the support of the working classes, and our State Department already is overstretched.  Yes, we're all curious to know who killed the special prosecutor, but we don't need another crisis in Latin America.

Syria and Iraq
If Obama prefers not to use the modifier "Islamic" when referring to Islamic extremists, I suggest he just refer to them as "those shitheads."  Throughout history, various groups have used religion to justify all kinds of awful behaviors, and will continue to do so.  Come to think of it, "those religious shitheads" just may be more to the point.