Cleveland

I've been watching as much of the Republican convention as I can tolerate, but I've been taking a lot of breaks.  A lot of the delegates are doing the same thing, we're told.

The truth is, it's been hard to take: fear, hate, more fear, more hate, and not much else.  I stuck with Rudy Giuliani for a while, not wanting to miss seeing him have his stroke, but after a few minutes I had to give up.  The black sheriff of Milwaukee County, who thinks "Black Lives Matter" is a terrorist organization, was especially despicable.  That first night, Melania's speech offered the only respite from the fear and loathing;  yes, it was especially amusing that a chunk was plagiarized from Michelle Obama.  Why not Margaret Thatcher — or even Tipper Gore?

I must have missed the "Work" part of the "Make America Work Again" themed second night, because all I heard were especially rabid attacks on Hillary, with the grand prize going to Chris Christie.  It was pretty much the same on night three, with a little Bible thumping from Pence, and a star turn by Ted Cruz, who apparently still hasn't forgiven the Donald for linking Ted's father to the Kennedy assassination.

I don't know if I'll watch Tr*mp's speech tonight.  I suppose, as an informed citizen, I should — but I might have to chug a little Pepto first.  Will there be a post-convention "bump" for the Republicans this year?  I won't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

Bigly

Donald Tr*mp, now the Republican nominee barring divine lightning strikes and such like, says he will win the November election "bigly."  Yes, he said he'd "win bigly."

I can't say I'm sorry to see the end of the Ted Cr*z campaign.  Cr*z's loss is a loss for the Christianist bigots, the most rabid "conservatives," and the self-righteous haters long the essential "base" of the Republican Party.  The "fact" that Cruz senior was involved in the Kennedy assassination (according to Tr*mp) seemed to have no bearing on the voting — probably because equal numbers of Republicans approved of that assassination as disapproved.

I'm also not unhappy that wolf-in-sheep's-clothing John Kasich dropped out.  The wealthy donors who supported him probably will start giving to Hillary's superPAC — the corporations never had many complaints about the last Clinton administration.

I don't much care for Hillary.  I suppose a lot of that arises from my dislike of Bill, but she's also a lot more of a hawk than Obama has been.  Also, I expect that she'll follow Obama's lead on defending government secrecy and persecuting whistleblowers.  Just the same, I'll vote for her in the general election, and I'm trying to persuade other Sanders supporters to do the same.  Trump is a complete unknown in terms of real policy beliefs, and his ignorance of everything except marketing his own brand makes him especially scary.

I'm also not confident that New York will remain a "safe" Democratic state this time around, so I guess Jill Stein of the Green Party will have to do without me this year.  Okay, I'll say it:

Vote for Hillary: It Could Be Worse!   It could be a lot worse.

Fear and Loathing

If this has become a battle between fear and loathing, it appears that Republicans who know both candidates are deciding they’d rather be afraid. — Gail Collins

It's true.  Ted Cr*z is making Donald Tr*mp look reasonable by comparison, and that's extremely problematic.  Cr*z, after all, is despicable, genuinely despicable.  Even John Boehner — not the world's cuddliest man — calls Cr*z "Lucifer incarnate."  The danger of a Tr*mp who appears "reasonable," of course, is the possibility of President Tr*mp in 2017.

Hillary is hard to like, even now that Bernie has pulled her far enough to the left to be significantly out of her comfort zone.  She's the consummate politician, and we don't like politicians.  People just don't trust her.  (I don't.  Maybe I'm wrong to tar her with the same brush as that lying, plutocrat pandering husband of hers, but I can't forget Bill promising us "Two for the price of one."  Two of him?  Just kill me now.)

Anyway, I'll be reaching out to any young, idealistic Bernie supporters I encounter, and trying to teach them the hardest lesson of politics: sometimes you just have to hold your nose and swallow.

Republicans Panic

What if Donald Tr*mp wins the Republican nomination for president?

Given Tr*mp's high negatives, it is very likely that Republican turnout in the general election would be low.  Democrats could retake the Senate, which would guarantee a liberal replacement for Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.  Even if Tr*mp won the presidency and Republican control of the Senate was maintained, a good deal of the Ryan program would be doomed.  No wonder Republicans are panicking.

Trump is the best bet for defeating the TPP, which he opposes.  (No matter what she says now, it's a good bet that President Hillary would eventually support it.  Let's not forget NAFTA.)  Despite his vocal opposition to the Affordable Care Act, Tr*mp supports the individual mandate.  Obamacare just might be saved.  Tr*mp's opposition to abortion is soft, and he has blustered some positive comments about Planned Parenthood.  Yes, he favors more destructive tax cuts for the super-rich and would be inclined towards institutionalized racism, but we'd be just as likely to get much the same outcomes from a President R*bio or a President Cr*z.  (You will note that I now have assigned Tr*mp's chief competitors to the category of "obscenity.")

If Bernie loses any possibility of winning the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday, I will seriously consider switching my party registration to Republican so I can vote for Tr*mp in the primaries.  A Tr*mp candidacy in November would destroy the Republican Party as we know it, and I'd be fine with that.

Oh, yeah... Iowa

Not that it actually matters, but here are some observations:

• Since Iowa is a caucus state, people actually get to see who their friends and neighbors are supporting.  It is possible that a significant number of voters who would happily support Tr*mp in a secret ballot might hesitate to do so in an open caucus for fear of open mockery.
• Cruz put a hell(?) of a lot of faith in Jesus when he opposed the motor fuel ethanol requirement.  One assumes there are many evangelicals with no strong economic reliance on corn farming.
• Rubio's "victory" speech pandered to the pathologically religious with all the vehemence of, say, Ted Cruz.  He didn't mention his support for eliminating the capital gains tax, which constitutes pandering to a much smaller but much wealthier interest group.
• Hillary's camp declaring "victory" while in a dead heat with Sanders and with ten per cent of the vote still out struck me as, shall we say, odd.
• Given that we're talking about Iowa, with its proportional delegate selection and other foibles, it seems absurd that anybody should claim to have "won" — except for the fact that America loves "winners," and politicians are pathologically needy.

So, Iowa leaves us with five candidates claiming "victory" and a few claiming "I wasn't really trying." New Hampshire will receive just as much press attention, and be just as meaningless.

Back when I was young, political conventions actually selected candidates, and it was a lot of fun.  I'm hoping to see that happen again.

Short takes

State of the Union
I had hoped for a little less subtlety in the president's critique of Republicans, given the density of many of those critiqued, but at least he's finally figured out that seven years of calling for bipartisan cooperation was a waste of time.

"Navigational Error"
Of course those naval patrol boats detained by the Iranians inside their territorial waters were "snooping."  Everybody "snoops" on everybody.  You could tell the Iranians were not especially surprised nor upset because they called it "snooping" rather than "spying," and their prompt release of the ten sailors demonstrates that the nuclear agreement is having a positive impact on relations.

Latest Republican Debate
I didn't watch, but I gather from the coverage that Cruz is trying to contrast himself with Tr*mp in an effort to gain "establishment" support.  I hope he succeeds, because that would be likely to hasten the demise of the Republican party.

Attacks in Cologne
Apparently sharia law has no great hold over young Muslim men in Germany, since the lads out groping German lasses were dead drunk.  Yes, they're pigs.  No, they're not terrorists.

Friedrichs v. California Teachers Association
If the Court overturns its 1977 decision which allowed public sector unions to collect agency fees for legally required representation of non-members, it will be an entirely political decision by the conservative majority.  As far as activism goes, the Roberts court makes the Warren court look feeble by comparison.

Another Republican Debate (yawn)

I caught last night's Republican debate.  I meant to skip it, but somehow I didn't.

Jeb Bush overcame his intrinsic good manners and respect for rules by ignoring the moderators and continuing a spirited attack on Tr*mp that went well beyond his "time limit."  I guess he meant to demonstrate he's really not a wussy.  Did it work?  Well, it didn't hurt.  Many of the candidates participated in ganging up on Tr*mp, and to me the Donald appeared slightly shaken.

Rubio and Cruz apparently believe the contest is between the two of them, and may have done each other some damage, but probably not enough to matter even in the short run.  Both Rubio and Cruz supporters will believe their man "won."

Chris Christie tried an amusing new tactic: disparaging Congress, as represented by Rubio and Cruz.  Given the public's low regard for Congress, the new tactic may have been effective.  We'll see.

Rand Paul was sounding a lot more libertarian than in previous debates, which was refreshing.  Ben Carson did damage control, Carly Fiorina suggested privatizing national security, and John Kasich made no particular impression at all.

And, oh yeah, nobody likes Obama.