Republicans Panic

What if Donald Tr*mp wins the Republican nomination for president?

Given Tr*mp's high negatives, it is very likely that Republican turnout in the general election would be low.  Democrats could retake the Senate, which would guarantee a liberal replacement for Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.  Even if Tr*mp won the presidency and Republican control of the Senate was maintained, a good deal of the Ryan program would be doomed.  No wonder Republicans are panicking.

Trump is the best bet for defeating the TPP, which he opposes.  (No matter what she says now, it's a good bet that President Hillary would eventually support it.  Let's not forget NAFTA.)  Despite his vocal opposition to the Affordable Care Act, Tr*mp supports the individual mandate.  Obamacare just might be saved.  Tr*mp's opposition to abortion is soft, and he has blustered some positive comments about Planned Parenthood.  Yes, he favors more destructive tax cuts for the super-rich and would be inclined towards institutionalized racism, but we'd be just as likely to get much the same outcomes from a President R*bio or a President Cr*z.  (You will note that I now have assigned Tr*mp's chief competitors to the category of "obscenity.")

If Bernie loses any possibility of winning the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday, I will seriously consider switching my party registration to Republican so I can vote for Tr*mp in the primaries.  A Tr*mp candidacy in November would destroy the Republican Party as we know it, and I'd be fine with that.

Rubio pwnd

I've never used the internet slang "pwnd" before, and for all I know, the term became obsolete while I wasn't watching (which I wasn't.)  Nevertheless, it seems to express perfectly the degree of public humiliation Marco Rubio suffered at the hands of Chris Christie Saturday night.

I wasn't planning to watch the debate, but nothing else on television appealed to me at the moment, so I turned it on just in time to watch Christie rattle Rubio so badly that I (a) laughed out loud and (b) even felt slightly sorry for the poor little twerp.  What mattered, of course, was not what happened on the debate stage, but what the news media would do with it afterwards.  Like me, most of America (including New Hampshire) was seeking more entertaining fare, and most viewers were willing to be entertained by back-to-back reruns of ten-year-old sitcoms, or whatever else was on.

The press pounced, and the Rubio campaign staff currently is crossing fingers and hoping the Super Bowl creates enough distraction so that most New Hampshire voters won't see the news until Wednesday.  I don't think it will happen, but I suppose some voters (elderly women?) will feel so sorry for "bubble boy" they'll vote for him despite (or because of) his total screw-up.

The line he repeated four times actually is a pretty good line, maintaining that Obama did not merely fumble due to youth and inexperience (like Rubio's), but because he genuinely intended to destroy our "American way of life."  It's an idiotic idea, of course, but probably pretty effective with voters who believe the Muslim who was born in Africa is the leader of an internal terror network.

Most significant, though, is that Rubio's poor performance demonstrated that he wouldn't stand up too well against either Hillary or Bernie.  The most significant GOP threat to Democratic control of the White House looks a lot less scary now.

Oh, yeah... Iowa

Not that it actually matters, but here are some observations:

• Since Iowa is a caucus state, people actually get to see who their friends and neighbors are supporting.  It is possible that a significant number of voters who would happily support Tr*mp in a secret ballot might hesitate to do so in an open caucus for fear of open mockery.
• Cruz put a hell(?) of a lot of faith in Jesus when he opposed the motor fuel ethanol requirement.  One assumes there are many evangelicals with no strong economic reliance on corn farming.
• Rubio's "victory" speech pandered to the pathologically religious with all the vehemence of, say, Ted Cruz.  He didn't mention his support for eliminating the capital gains tax, which constitutes pandering to a much smaller but much wealthier interest group.
• Hillary's camp declaring "victory" while in a dead heat with Sanders and with ten per cent of the vote still out struck me as, shall we say, odd.
• Given that we're talking about Iowa, with its proportional delegate selection and other foibles, it seems absurd that anybody should claim to have "won" — except for the fact that America loves "winners," and politicians are pathologically needy.

So, Iowa leaves us with five candidates claiming "victory" and a few claiming "I wasn't really trying." New Hampshire will receive just as much press attention, and be just as meaningless.

Back when I was young, political conventions actually selected candidates, and it was a lot of fun.  I'm hoping to see that happen again.

Another Republican Debate (yawn)

I caught last night's Republican debate.  I meant to skip it, but somehow I didn't.

Jeb Bush overcame his intrinsic good manners and respect for rules by ignoring the moderators and continuing a spirited attack on Tr*mp that went well beyond his "time limit."  I guess he meant to demonstrate he's really not a wussy.  Did it work?  Well, it didn't hurt.  Many of the candidates participated in ganging up on Tr*mp, and to me the Donald appeared slightly shaken.

Rubio and Cruz apparently believe the contest is between the two of them, and may have done each other some damage, but probably not enough to matter even in the short run.  Both Rubio and Cruz supporters will believe their man "won."

Chris Christie tried an amusing new tactic: disparaging Congress, as represented by Rubio and Cruz.  Given the public's low regard for Congress, the new tactic may have been effective.  We'll see.

Rand Paul was sounding a lot more libertarian than in previous debates, which was refreshing.  Ben Carson did damage control, Carly Fiorina suggested privatizing national security, and John Kasich made no particular impression at all.

And, oh yeah, nobody likes Obama.